Q4 & Q1Based on the flooding in December, I'm not expecting great numbers for Q4, but I've been having at look at Q1 so far and looks like it will be stellar. So - if I was someone interested in taking out BNK I think I'd want to do it sometime before the Q1 numbers are out (and by out I mean, Q1 is finished, because thats when you'll be able to calculate numbers to within spitting distance).
Brent is holding strong and Jan will average >$96 US. The royalties are coming down as higher % of production moves to new production so they should be well under 13%. 65% of Brent price per bbl seems to be steady for BNK heavy and ops/sales costs should also be steady - so that's> $62.4 per barrel, Royalties <$8.11 bbl, Sales $5/bbl, and op costs $11.00 / bbl - reads netback of $38.29/bbl. Avg Q1 production should be ~13K/day *90 days. I get netback of just under 45M for Q1. Production, price of Oil, and 2P should all go up as the year goes on. So you have a company with lots of reserves left to prove, throwing of enough cash to do it without borrowing, and virtually no debt. Once the thermal pilot gets going (and it seems that is has been very much delayed so that they can get production up after the slip in Q3) the 2P should substanitally increase.
The wild card seems to be the stability of the country, but they want into the EU, and the EU would love to have the largest oilfield in Europe - so I expect that will trump the concerns over how everyone is getting along. For Canadians, if you think this only happens elsewhere - google 'October Crisis' and look for any long term effects on the Canada or the economy.