Word on Talison at Cambridge house investing confe
I just attended this cambridge house investment conference this week, and I begun the day already holding some positions in TLH, at the end of the day after speaking to a few key people...I felt assured I made the right decisions investing in a great longterm company with a solid future like Talison!
Enjoyed had a very wonderful time Monday at the cambridge investment conference, i'd definitely go again it comes to down again in June when the world invest conference is hosted in Vancouver. Now, Talison wasn't there but I did get some good industry info. and insights:
I first spoke to the Austraila-based Orocobre CEO Richard Seville (rseville@orocobre) himself when the booth was empty. Though it was still early in the morning. After having a great discussion with him on the difference between brine and hard rock producers of lithium, he spoke and stated that he thought his firm has a very promising property. He agreed with me when I stated hardrock have the advantage of producing lithium at a faster timeline but brines can be produced at a lower cost but require more time. When I asked him how his operation is doing and when we'll expect Orocobre to be in production, he admitted it will not be in production till late 2012. However, he did mention that the brines his property owns does have an advantage over most other lithium brines, as it'll require 6-8 mths for natural solar production, as opposed to other competing brines which can take 12-16 months. (Even if this is the case, looks like talison will be the lone producing lithium supplier well even into 2013). He mentioned toyota owns 25% stake in the company to obtain a secured supply and future stockpile but orocobre will still maintain day to day leadership of its operations and pricing. Surprisingly, he did state that talison's salares 7 brines in his opinion arn't as good quality compared to Orocobre (according to him "they just pump water into the centre of those brines" - (not sure what he meant by that) meaning the quality of lithium grade from talion's salares 7 brine properties arnt as good compared to orocobre (unconfirmed ofcourse as he gave me a broad description without details). Although he did mention Salares 7 still has more hectares. But overall, he did still highly look upon talison and is aware they're just starting to work on the salares property and was just finished expansion of greenbushes. Richard did mention talison did have a good advantage it being the only one to produce lithium in shorter timeframe and create a stockpile if demand increases in the short term. he does expect lithium carbonate per tonne to increase for 2011 and 2012. He only seems to see the big 3- fmc, sqm, and rockwood and talison to be the only suppliers for next 2 yrs and control market pricing of per tonne of Lithium Carbonate equivalent. I also asked him about an article out there about possible lithium oversupply, and he mentioned its not legitimate - especially as the TRU consulting group wasn't really an official consulting grp for the industry.
I also spoke to investment Analyst Mike Berry for 5 mins before his speech when the room was alone. He did have very high thoughts on talison as a "mature discovery" stock they he thinks it'll be a 10 bagger from the IPO price. He says he personally expect it to be $30 per share some day. I did mention my ambitious plan own 10k shares of talison and hope that sp will reach $20 by 2013 to make 200K but he did think i got a realistic shot of it! Especially as the company creates its own plant in western australia to create an infrastructure and gain better margins from its supply chain. I asked him "where is talison lithium today if we compare the marketplace as a 100 metre sprint race?" He answered with a smile "Talison would have a 20 m lead, while the rest of the juniors are still at the startline". Its one of those plays that have a world class discovery that can revolutionize the world.
I also spoke to western lithium which produces lithium out of clay. Didn't speak to them very long but looks like they wont be in production till 2014. they did speak highly of talison (it being the "top dog" play) and Orocobre (being one of the better new entrant projects to eventually come online). They did mention how their production of clay production of lithium is something that is better than hardrock? (unconfirmed ofcourse) Though i'd be concerned with their late production date.
Also spoke to big picture energy analyst Jim letourneau about talison and its lithium supply. He's usually an advocate of energy stocks and related and thinks oil per barrel will least goto 150/barrel this year and thinks such green energy stocks who are already producing will only benefit with such increases in energy.
Seems that lithium will still remain in the picture even if audi/mitsibishi launch a car with a lithium-vanadium battery in 2013 according to company officials from american vanadium booth.
So this is the summary of info i gathered, it just makes me feel encouraged that i'm on the right track and will continue to focus on investing in a company like talison lithium, which is seen as a pioneer in the industry and will only get better and better....Now, i know some of the discussions are just opinions from different personalities at the conference (and not everything will be 100% necessarily true), but i like for the fact that each and everyone (incl. competitors and potential competitors) of them looked at Talison with a positive outlook being an industry leader with a solid future. No matter what happens in the short term, i'm sticking with talion for the long run over the next 24 months....