$3.80 Take Out or dont bother us!!$118 is still 75% discount to actual NAV. In two months we are expecting the new NI Resource Estimate for AAA.
Farhad is going to China next week....some longs here are hoping he is going to ink the preliminary deal with ChinaCo. for the 20% offtake agreement and for their funding of 35% of the Capex for the mine. If he returns with a leter of intent in hand...well you tell me what AAA should be trading at? Tell me another junior that has that kind of backing and even before a resource estimate?? And AAA is NOT going to be taken out anytime soon...period. Management has made it clear that AAA would look for "a White Knight" to come in and prevent a hostile take over....have a look at the NR for Liberty Metals our largest shareholder and potential financier for the balance of the Capex for the mine....
Once we are at $1.90 then start talking about "take out", and only "a friendly take out" if management believe it is in the best interest of shareholders. So, add a 100% premium to $1.90 and start thinking about $3.80 as an offer.
good luck, see the future as it is unfolding before your eyes right now.
Karma
K + S Germany bought Potash One for $431 million dollars. Potash One has an NI Resource Estimate for 135.8 million tons of Proven and Probable KCL. So, $431 / 135.8 =
$3.17 per ton....
So the $3.17 becomes the most recent deal paid for potash and thus becomes the benchmark for what a hostile take over deal is worth to a junior going forward.
So the Valuation for just the KCL “Pounds In The Ground” for Allana based on my ongoing calculation based on the actual drill resutls is: (44.70 Measured + 356.32 Indicated) = 401.00 Million Tons x 21.5% KCL = 86.20 million tons KCL x $3.25 per ton = $280 million value NAV / 147 million shares =
$1.90 per share NAV in April 2011 with the completion of the pending NI Resource Estimate