TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Post by
Karmanowon Jan 26, 2011 8:24pm
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Post# 18032065
AAA should be at $1.70 not $1.18
AAA should be at $1.70 not $1.18If you are in doubt about where Allana is going compare AAA with WPX and our current share price. Mr Cook has Allana as a Top Pick and said we were trading up to 50% of our peers....his words not mine..
WPX (Western Potash) closed Monday at $1.26 and today at $1.34
AAA (Allana Potash) closed Monday at $1.15 and today at $1.18
Looks to me that AAA has alot of room to go before she is trading 50% higher than today....do the math.
AAA will have lower Capex and Opex costs stated by all analysts and reports. AAA is not looking for a deep pocket major for a take over and pay $3.25 a ton for the measured and indicated KCL in the ground,
AAA has the real goods and wants to go into production. Farhad is going to China next week and if he returns with an inked deal with ChinaCo. for the first offtake agreement for 35% of the capex costs of the mine.... "The day the Chinese actually put up $300M will be the day we're excited. " that day may come sooner than we think...The negotiations were concluded several months ago, and terms agreed upon, so an inked deal will go along way for AAA and investors.
IMHO, Allana should be currently trading at a premium to WPX. It may take the drill results from holes #9 and #10, or Farhads return from China with "a paper in hand." alot of things separate Allana from some of the others....
Karma
Identifying top seeds in potash boom
Published on: December 10 2010 12:00 GMT
TER: Getting back to your advantaged companies, why isn't Western Potash in that category?
RW: We raised our target on Western Potash, too, but we're less optimistic on its prospects given that it's maybe the fourth or fifth junior in the Saskatchewan Basin. Over the past couple of years, BHP has acquired Anglo Potash Limited and Athabasca Potash Inc.; and now, Potash One is bidding for K+S. Already these three juniors are arguably further advanced than Western Potash. Plus, you've got the brownfields, the incumbents and the big players—PotashCorp, The Mosaic Company (NYSE:MOS) and Agrium Inc. (NYSE:AGU). They could well expand their capacity for potash in the basin in western Canada.
So, Western Potash is late to the game by comparison and the cost of capital is significantly higher than it is for the brownfields. This isn't to say the stock price can't go higher, because clearly it went through our target; but we're somewhat tempered on our optimism. A lot of things have to go right for that Western Potash mine to be built and we're just not persuaded it's likely to happen
(Allana): The company's also negotiating with this investor to put up something like 35% of the capex to help finance the project. In turn, Allana has committed to give this partner discount-to-market prices on potash until it gets its capital back.
The terms have yet to be finalized, but it's an interesting way to finance the project. The day the Chinese actually put up $300M will be the day we're excited. Right now, it's not concrete; it's just in negotiations. Even so, a lot of things separate Allana from some of the others