RE: WPX should be tradingMy response was not a Rant...it was Due Dilligence and something you could learn alittle more about. Assumptions create misunderstandings. We both own Canadian Potash Companies...yours in Sask. mine in Ethiopia...potash is potash where ever it comes from it does the same thing. You allude that I did not attempt to speak to your post...I believe I did and more.
I wish you well with your investment as it is both our goal to make money...good luck and hope to see you at production.
Karma
AAA is
being pushed hard by a number of players right now including Dundee who recently released a report on it.
To be honest, I'm
not sure why.
(Wellington just raised its target today for AAA to $1.65 per share. We have 3 Strong Buys and 2 Buys from the 5 Analysts covering AAA. Your KCL is deep and AAA is shallow).(The resource is near 1 Billion Tons of Potash ore at 21%KCL. NI Resource Report due in April to confirm my estimate.) (We have 2 strategic partners, ChinaCo. is paying for 35% of capex for 20%offtake pricing security and Liberty Metals of Boston owns 12 million shares and will likely fund the balance of capex we need for mine construction.)
(Farhad is going to China next week and if he returns with an inked deal with ChinaCo. for the first offtake agreement for 35% of the capex costs of the mine.... "The day the Chinese actually put up $300M will be the day we're excited. " that day may come sooner than we think...)
By
their comparison charts I see WPX as the obvious winner.
Perhaps its
a case of the unknown causing more excitement than a known deposit.
IMO I see
a lot of risk with AAA. Besides the fact that it is in Ethiopia,
(the Chinese are investing 8 Billion Dollars in railways and infrastructure. The Chinese, Indian and Arabs own 2 million acres of Arable land that is going to need potash.)
that is an old property that was from my understanding
found to be unprofitable. Granted, AAA is delineating new resource but what is curious to me is that it is finding
KCL at very different depths in each hole (from 160m in some holes and over
700m in others).
Almost like there are
small veins of KCL and not a large continuous deposit
My actual ongoing calculation for AAA and will be confirmed with the NI Resource Estimate in April 2011
Measured Resource Indicated Resource Inferred Resource.
Hole #1 - 1.84 M/Tons + 14.72 M/ Tons X 19%KCL = 3.15 M/Tons KCL +(37.80 million tons Inferred)
Hole #2 - 1.50 M/Tons + 12.0 M/Tons X 28%KCL = 3.78 M/Tons KCL +(45.30 million tons Inferred)
Hole #3 - 2.80M/Tons + 22.4M/Tons X 23%KCL = 5.80 M/Tons KCL +(69.60 million tons Inferred)
(Hole #4 - 7.00M/Tons + 56.0M/Tons X 11%KCL = 10.00 M/Tons KCL) +(120.00 million tons Inferred)
(Hole #5 -) future drilling results pending
Hole #6 - 5.82M/Tons + 45.5M/Tons X 20%KCL = 10.46 M/Tons KCL +( 125.00 million tons Inferred)
Hole #7 - 4.49M/Tons + 35.92M/Tons X 23%KCL = 9.3 M/Tons KCL +( 111.60 million tons Inferred)
Hole #8 - 3.30M/Tons + 26.10M/Tons X 23%KCL = 6.0 M/Tons KCL +( 72.00 million tons Inferred)
(On Holes #9 thru #12 on the Haro Property I assume similar results to hole number 7. Will adjust as results are released)
Hole #9 - 4.49M/Tons + 35.92M/Tons X 23%KCL = 9.0 M/Tons KCL +( 111.60 million tons Inferred)
Hole #10 - 4.49M/Tons + 35.92M/Tons X 23%KCL = 9.0 M/Tons KCL +( 111.60 million tons Inferred)
Hole #11 - 4.49M/Tons + 35.92M/Tons X 23%KCL = 9.0 M/Tons KCL +( 111.60 million tons Inferred)
Hole #12- 4.49M/Tons + 35.92M/Tons X 23%KCL = 9.0 M/Tons KCL +( 111.60 million tons Inferred)
44.70 M/Tons Measured + 356.32 M/Tons Indicated X 21.5%KCL = 86.23 M/Tons of Actual KCL
+( 1,027 BILLION tons Inferred) = a 43 year mine life from the Measured and Indicated Categories with 2 million tons mined per year + the option for added tons from open pit mining
(We expect to open pit a track 1 mile wide by 10 miles long at shallow depth of 160 meters and a cost of $50 opex per ton)
( it was nothing to do with profitability...his conventional mine shaft flooded and he suspended work...but kept his records which gave AAA targets to start drilling on..).
If so,
this doesn't seem conducive to mining. I am not a geologist, however
.( RW: The potash deposit there may be as shallow as 150 meters or so, which suggests the possibility of an open-pit operation. That would cost less than sinking a shaft in Saskatchewan, where the company would likely have to go down to a depth of 1 km. That's more than $1 billion just to get the shaft down. Parts of the Danakil Depression potash deposit appear to be 600–700 meters, so solution mining would be possible there also).
The market seems
to love drill results. More so than a project
moving forward to a production decision. WPX will have its day. It too will
soon be expanding its resource size in the near future and
will likely receive a buyout offer post feasibility studies. (Western Potash is late to the game by comparison and the cost of capital is significantly higher than it is for the brownfields. This isn't to say the stock price can't go higher, because clearly it went through our target; but we're somewhat tempered on our optimism. A lot of things have to go right for that Western Potash mine to be built and we're just not persuaded it's likely to happen)