Quick calculation...Based on Bioniche'srecent projection of annual production capacity for Econiche from their new Vaccine Manufacturing Centre (VMC):
- Econiche vaccine capacity: 40 million doses/yr (see link A below for presentation)
- Selling price of Econiche: $3.00 per dose** (see B below*)
= Capacity to fill potential Gross Sales of: $120,000,000 annually
The above calculation takes a simple "one-dimension" approach. Nevertheless, "capacity" is often one of the roadblocks to future sales potential. Would not speculate on a year this capacity could be reached given the obvious need for additional licensing outside of Canada (underway) + distributors --> sales.
$120,000,000 annually of incremental sales (or, any $ figure close to that) is "game-changing" for Bioniche. Will likely happen in steps/stages over a period (not speculating on latter), but the pieces of the puzzle are definitely coming together for Econiche (imo).
BTW: rhdmd raised a very good opening question in a recent post. The answer I received from Jennifer Shea is the same as what Lorne already provided but slightly embellished (my version below):
Q: What were the primary reasons there was practically zero sales of Econiche in Canada in Fiscal 2010 (based on zero $ revenue reported in Annual Report (2010) for Food Safety division)?
A: Sales have been limited to date, due in part to limited production capacity. We have been making vaccine in a small product development laboratory, where other early stage vaccines are also being tested. There has also been a requirement to provide vaccine for regulatory purposes and market-related studies.
Note: Construction of VMC is on track for completion by end of March.
With licencing approval of Econiche "down south", followed by approval "down under" and across the Atlantic as per BNC's plans... BNC will have a cash-producing cow in their Food Safety Division that will quickly dwarf their Animal Health Division's current $27 million revenue contribution. Not tomorrow, but within a reasonable timeframe.
Switching gears: Urocidin (with positive PhIIIa trial results) is still the key driver of BNC sp. And, the announcement of positive PhIIIa is not fully priced-in BNC sp by any means imho. Nor, is the initiation of PhIIIb recruiting which is currently underway but unannounced todate.
Have a good one!
rg
B)
Canadian Approval Q&A (on BNC website; *re price/dose; note: info dated Oct-08 but I confirmed with BNC $3.00 price still valid)