Number CrunchingI am trying to figure out a value for LFD based on today's report. Trying to be conservative and using only the best estimate contigent liquids (73558 Mbbls), 40% WI and 247MM shares fully diluted, I come up with a value of 47 cents/share (using Goofys $4/bbl) and $1.69/share (using the 2009 M&A $14.40/bbl)
This tells me the current share price has only the known liquids built on at a low value per barrel. What is not in the current price is the value of the known gas, any potential increase in known reserves and nothing for other potential pools in the block. This is the block with the lowest risk as they already have a 5000bbl/d discovery well.
Lots of upside with this stock while downside is minimal.