CMK-real pictureackrabbitslims
Your post shows evolution.of my picture of CMK
Yes , I started to look at CMK with BEST POSITIVE INTENTIONS
As most people's here my first, CURSORY, impression was GREAT ( with few 'but"s)
as illustrated by my WTN post - my second pick .
The difference between me and most people here
I went on digging deeper .I asked questions.
Placed CMK story in a wider industry context and compared similar stories in history.
Most people just focus with a tunnel vision centered on CMK ,
Take the co ONE SIDED PR at face value and join the pump.
Limit themselves to co "news' and general "china / commodities story.
They do not have that wealth of comparable numbers at their fingertips , I have.
The experienced ones ( and there is quite few of them),who should now better
,just talk their book, and ride the hype as long it last.
My model of future CMK profitability, success , went from crude
multiplications of crude ,generalized numbers ( same as that Jennings analyst did , or as most people do and stop at that )
see here
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29222244&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?s=CMK&t=LIST&m=29224986&l=0&pd=0&r=0&msg=3
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29237493&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
to more refined and MORE REAL model
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29247462&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
My first opinion ( good story but overpriced) evolved to a
CMK = TOTAL LOSER,
100% SHORT CANDIDATE
as I digested newer and more data under many angles and comparisons.
1. THE NUMBERS DID NOT ADD UP
THE QUESTIONS ,no pumper want to reach the incoming greater fool KEPT PILING UP
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29238386&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetail.aspx?p=0&m=29238616&l=0&r=0&s=CMK&t=LIST
2. THE VALUATION IS ABSURD only seen on top of pre production speculative bubble
of cos which went through IDENTICAL BUBLLE. and CRASHED 90%
But the pumpers are working hard to squeeze couple of bucks more before they
INEVITABLE DUMP BEGINS.
Chart suggests the DUMP has began already .
weekly 1 Y chart ugly H&S indicating drop to $ 3
https://chart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=CMK.TO&t=1y&q=l&l=off&z=l&p=m50,m20&lang=en-US®ion=US
3. THERE IS NO FINANCING SO FAR , no money to proceed
.minimal production 1 H ,no sales 1Q ,maybe 1H, no customers , no pricing , no idea on costs
And if financing will show up = bad dilution.or debt which killed couple of producers.
THERE IS NOTHING REALLY ..just because they want to produce 2mt
( and silence on profits or financing )
doesn't justify to RUN UP THEIR CAP BY $ 2 B as the pumpers dream at $ 11 PRE- DILUTION
or $ 8 after dilution.
2 B $ GEEEESUS for what ???
4. The history of 5 canadian coal cos who made it to production is:
-- 2 dead ;( PVM, CCJ )
-- 2 surviving ,profitably but brushing with bankruptcy on the way up (WTN ,GCE)
-- 1 surviving on earnings loses /breaking even - PRC.
So ,historical odds are 50/50 BUT the winners sell highest price HCC AT LOWEST COST
The losers were selling similar to CMK lesser quality ,cheaper coal. AT LOVER EST COST
Means ,CMK has high odds to become a LOSER ,judging from history of SAME ATTEMPTS.
4.THE HYSTERIA TO SHUT ME UP EXPLODED among nervous red necks here
( you may not like my cryons or my style - but MY FACTS AND CONCLUSIONS ARE INESCAPABLE )
NORMAL PEOPLE CHANGE THEIR PICTURE OF REALITY in accordance
to ever changing info and results of their INQUIRY .
MY TODAY's knowledge of CMK is totally different of INITIAL one.
From good story on first glance to VERY BAD after closer look.
Yet, you try to hold me for my earlier opinion '"earth is flat "
after I discovered later ,it is a globe.
Ant the
"flat earth" BELIEVERS want to execute GEE-LILEO .
LOL