RE: EOIM et al.I think that after this mediocre reserve report, lfd will be challenged to move sp before new information from well.
In my opinion it is a mediocre report and the numbers are not what everyone was anticipating. After sober analysis, the sp has not really moved up since the report was released.
We are all here because this represented a low risk field development with some bigger exploration targets to boot. The first reserve report had best case 132 mil with upside to 1.9 billion. This was the "prospective resource" assigned only to the field (ie the low hanging fruit). Chance of finding reserves was 63% (which is not the chance of economic reserve size, but is pretty impressive nevertheless). But even with the reported 4800 bopd oil test DeGolyer only assigned prospective resources, which are the riskiest of the 3 possible 51-101 categories.LFD had another 5 prospects with too little data to provide possible reserve sizes.
Now with more seismic data, the field risk is lower as DeGolyer now assigns "contingent resources", but the numbers are much lower with best case down to 60 million and max upside at 434.5 mil. These numbers are for the main zone in the field and directly comparable to the old numbers of 132 mil and 1,9 bil respectively. So a huge reduction in field size potential; however, to offset this hit, we now have condensate and BOEs in the Shiranish and "prospective resources" in 3 other prospects one of which includes part of the original field. I think the gas is fluff and not likely to be produced in Kurdistan for a long time. So for the 3 prospects we have best case 217.9 mil and upside high case of 334.3 million. This is OK, but nowhere do we see anything approaching billions of barrels. Also, lfd has not provided a chance of success for these prospects, but you know they are much riskier than the 63% assigned to the field where there was well control and confirmation of oil content.
As result, the game has changed somewhat to a much smaller low risk field opportunity and a reasonably modest inventory of prospects(original 5 reduced to 3). Don't be fooled by adding the field contingent resources to the prospective resources in the prospects, because although the resulting number is attractive, we are still mixing the "low fruit" with the much higher fruit which will be more risky to get at.
However as we have seen, more data means more opportunity for the promoters to promote. Maysteeler mixes numbers from resource reports 1 & 2, Taxdemico mixes best case and high case numbers and management mixes contingent and prospective resources.
Maybe politics will be favorable in next months, maybe Vast hits a big well, but I do not see any more news specific to the block until we start drilling in June.