RE: Foolish calculations thah mean littleBruce101:
I stand by my forecast of 25 cents per share for the next three months.
The only way the price is going to go much higher is either a dramatic increase in the metal reserves (new findings), or a buy-out.
Fundamentally, at over 425 million shares (by the end of my three month projected period) and 18,000 ounces projected production, NWM will not make more than about 3 cents per share. At 8 times the earnings, this gives 24 cents value.
Let us be optimistic, and give it 10 times; it still gives us about 30 cents.
In case you are right and the share price starts going much higher, then the potential buyers would have a hard time justifying to their own shareholders as to why should they pay a very large premium to NWM. A small premium of a few cents is justifiable in a rising market, though.
Consequently the share price would never reach 60 or 70 or 80 cents. The Company would be sold
before that time comes.
The CEO/president of NWM has publicly said that the asset value per share (as of the date of his interview) was 20 cents. If he is expecting suitors to pay many times over, he would not have said so.
As far as my being juvenile is concerned, you don't have a faintest idea of how many shares I have, how many shares will I sell at 25 cents, and what my cost base is.
Let me educate you about my self: I very very firmly believe in this stock. I am very well invested in this stock. HOWEVER, I am not living in a fool's paradise. There is a realistic upper limit to this stock, and I will stick by it. And because you do not know my cost base, it is your assumptions that are juvenile.
Your analogy of rainy River is utter nonsense. Just because something happened at Company A does not mean that the same thing is going to happen at NWM. Yes, a Black Swan event is possible, but the chances of it happening are really low. It seems that you learned nothing at MIT.
My above calculation can be all wrong, but only in the event of the discovery of a large new deposit. But in that scenario, we are moving towards speculation, away from production and investment.
Let's see in three months time whose calculations are "foolish" .
In spite of your rudeness, good day to you, sir!