Alien Metals Ord Shs ASLRF

Dictun de dicto ....iii UK BOARD

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From DDD on the iii board, ...........glad to see you guys across the water wake up :)  See below

Let's say we prove up a fairly conservative 120moz by October. By that time I would expect the silver spot to be hovering around $40 after spiking up to $50 and dropping back down again. Remember, that we ought to expect extreme volatility this year.

XCap's regression line at 120moz is Y = 8.3438X - 92.195

So at $40 spot I'm expecting an underlying asset value of around 240p before the end of the year.

Let's suppose we are still trading at a 50% discount to peer group (unlikely but let's be conservative). That would give us about a 120p market price.

Now let's suppose a mid-cap or major comes in and makes a bid. Negotiations ensue and a take-out price of a 25% premium is agreed. That would give us circa 150p.

We get a near four bagger on today's heavily discounted prices.

A buyer gets a 90p discount to asset valuation and the potential to prove up 200moz or even 300moz in 2012 - 2013.

The obvious variables are spot price, resources, discount to market and takeover premium. I suspect the latter three are pretty conservative assumptions, it's only really the spot price that is the wild car assumption. Suffice to say that even if it doesn't go further than $32, you would still be looking at a 110p exit, cereris paribus.

I'll take between £1.10 and £1.50, subject to the silver spot price thanks very much. With luck the 50% discount to market will erode as the year wears on.

You must be a little insane to sell AGQ before Q4, even then it makes a lot more sense to wait for the bid to roll in.

Silver may go nuclear now, Arian will follow...