IMHOMy informal research points to the PNG government taking up the option. Delays in a major agreement are not unusual while the i's are dotted and t's crossed. I would not view the 1-month window as a hard deadline.
Here's why I think that the PNG government is unlikely to bail out:
1. The delay last year for the granting of the license was due to precisely the governmernt requesting that the 30% option be put in the contract:
"Nautilus had been expecting to be issued it’s mining licence at the end of October, but the ceremony was cancelled at the very last minute when the Mining Minister queried why a government stake of 30% in the proposed mine had been deleted from the licence agreement."
https://ramumine.wordpress.com/2010/12/03/nautilus-png-mining-minister-needs-re-education/
2. On January 21st, the PNG minister went on public record as saying they will take the option, and also gave details:
"Mining Minister John Pundari says the PNG government will use its wholly owned commercial entity, Petromin, to take its maximum 30% stake in the sea floor mining project being developed by Canadian company, Nautilus Minerals. Radio Australia's Jemima Garrett reports that PNG will contribute $US103 million over a four-year period, with an initial investment of $27 million. Mr Pundari says PNG will also take a full 30% stake in the patents on new mining technology. He says Petromin will be able to meet the 30 day deadline to sign the deal."
https://www.radioaustralianews.net.au/stories/201101/3117898.htm
Personally, I've added on this dip.