RE: RE: My estimate PositionTrade(the following is just a theoretical discussion, nothing personal, and it may be NOT useful for investment decision - positiontrade).
Sorry, Can7, while your model could be right eventually, I am afraid IT IS NOT A FACT YET, so far it is just a HIGHLY-SCOHLAR-hypothesis like a weather forcast, in the best.
To get the expected highly-profitable-production, Argex still has a long way to go, lots of difficulties to overcome . Your dream - it's my dream too - may come true someday, but that is not the reason to say "My dream is true ALREADY". That is why, I have only(?) 90% confidence that Argex can make it smoothly in 2-3 years. And the market-expectation for that is < 20%, (I guess based on my market observation).
To be frankly, while your working model has certain merits, it does have an important shortcoming - IT FORGOT WE ARE WORKING WITH VENTURE INVESTMENT! IT ALSO FORGOT, INVESTMENT IS NOT A SCIENCE, IT IS ARTS, IT IS A GAME! To you, to me, or to anybody in this BB, Argex is ONLY, and SHOULD BE ONLY AN INVESTMENT VEHICLE, not our children who carry over our life.
You said, "Just watch the money flow ... it is the vote of money that will be most important."
Wrong!
Oh, what I mean is that your logic is wrong, not your support for Argex.
Money flow always got a peak just few days before significant correction comes. In the worst scenario, Money flow always got the highest summit 1 or few days before a bubble bursts!!! Why? Because market-expectation is too high, and reality is not that high! That is the MASS PSYCHOLOGY, that is the base of Wave Theory. Money flow may be used for reference parameters, but it is not the major one, and its application is relatively limited compare to MACD, wave, Stochastics, charts shape, volume vs price, etc.
You said, "People have voted with their money with La Blache production". You may do, I do with 90% confidence, but NOT most of people - those know the story - DO! - If they DO, RGX should be trading at $22.5/sh ALREADY ( or after a 10% annual discount for 2 or 3 years, that is around $16-18), not <4% of that! If they DO, why there ARE still some severe Short-sale? Do you think those short-salers know Argex less than you do? You won't be that naive, right? Or, you won't be too smart to tell us your real feeling?
You said, "but a great majority of them bought the shares for production," - how can you know? This can only be a guess, may be a right one, but I won't bet it. And my bet is that most of them just follow the trend, because most of new comers can rapidly see a up-trend, but they need much more time to do in-depth DD like you did.
As talking about probability statistics, I have to mention two major points -
1). To predict future, probability is always needed, because there are always some un-predictable events or factors affect us. E.g. - dilution and financing, public relationship, possible ownership argument, market competition, war, artificial or natural disaster ... You name it.
Only probability-statistics can give us a ROUGH idea - what the MARKET-EXPECTATION is.
2). Most of important is that -
The target for investment is always HIGHEST REWARD/RISK RATIO, you know.
Why the current price is so low compare to the very high potential REWARD as in you value model? Because of RISK! Because of uncertainty! Because too few people learned the story so far. Because the management has just started promotion for a few days. Because the MARKET-EXPECTATION for the estimated probability (to be a highly-profitable mine in 2-3 y),is still very low (may be ~20%?) Because Argex has not mature enough, hence most of institution investors are NOT permitted to touch it so far. It is still left for venture investors only. And I believe, that would be changed soon. That is why I put a relatively heavy bet on it.
I hope to see this confidence level statistics gradually go up, so does the share price of RGX. BUT, if most of "People have voted with their money with La Blache production". that would be the time for us to TAKE PROFIT AND GO AWAY to enjoy our harvest!
JMHO