test only - please ignoreOn September 25, 2010, I valued xxxxxx based on the resource value.
https://www.stockhouse.com/Bullboards/MessageDetailThread.aspx?sv=2&p=0&m=28635855&r=3&s=ORT.A&t=LIST
For comparison purpose, I decided to value xxxxxx as a manufacturing company.
Based on a P/E ratio of 10, the stock price would be $17.50
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The following analysis is based on xxxxxx running at full capacity to supply all of Quebec metallurgical alumina needs.
In addition, ultra pure alumina manufacturing was based on the stated figures of 1 ton per day.
Metallurgical Alumina
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Quebec based aluminum smelters used 6 million tons on metallurgical yearly.
Mr. Gerry Brockelsby,
president of Marquest Asset Management, and one of the institional invesors in xxxxxx, in an interview on BNN (https://watch.bnn.ca/featured/#clip419669) said that there is a $150 per ton economic advantgae and a $100 per ton transport advatage. That means that xxxxxx has the ability to make $250 per ton on metallurgical alumina.
Say that xxxxxx under cuts the market by $25 and make only $225 per ton.
6,000,000 tons per year * $225 per gross profit = $1,350,000,000 yearly gross profit
Ultra Pure Alumina
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1 ton per day * 2000 kg/ton * 365 days * $300 kg = $219,000,000 yearly sales * 50% gross = $109,500,000 yearly gross profit.
Manufacturing and Overhead expenses
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The number of plants required: is 6 at 3000 tons per day and will employ 6000 people.
https://www.explorationxxxxxx.com/DATA/EN/xxxxxx_Les%20Affaires_EN.pdf
Labour Cost: 6000 people * $30,000 salary * 1.15 (Employer contributions) = $207,000,000 yearly
Cost of building the plants is 6 * 300,000,000 = 1.8 billion dollars
Debt service at 8% : 108,000,000
Extraction(10% of sales): $261,900,000
Overhead (10% of sales): $261,900,000
Miscellaneous(5% of sales): $130,950,000
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Summary:
Gross Profit: $1,459,500,000
Costs
Labor $207,000,000
Debt Service $108,000,000
Overhead $261,900,000
Miscellaneous $392,850,000
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Total Costs $969,750,000
Profit before Taxes $489,750,000
Taxes (28.4%) $139,089,000 (
https://www.investquebec.com/en/index.aspx?page=1824)
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Profit after taxes $350,661,000
Per share $1.75 (based on 200,000,000 shares. Currently there are 160 million shares fully diluted)