Alien Metals Ord Shs ASLRF

RE: RE: Next Leg Up

[Sonsub]

The below is copied from ddd on the iii uk board but I have changed over to canadian $ for ease of reading.
We are currently 50% of asset valuation. Sunjammer and DDD have been involved from Arains near going bust days and are more involved than me. I have bought in at 10c and 8.5c and have experienced the good and bad days. Been disheartening since New year but I consider this a good op to get in again. The 12 month  'gains' may seem high but IMO arent so good as the price a year ago had bankrupcy built in. Today all cylanders firing in an enviroment the uneducated dread but hopefully we and our familys may benefit from what we 'may' know what is happening with currencys worldwide.

I expect 120 million ozs from this drill campaign and also expect a news release for even more $ in the kitty this week or next ($1.5 million Tepal option)............Oh and Silver is how much?

Anyway below is DDDs comments.

Let's say we prove up a fairly conservative 120moz by October. By that time I would expect the silver spot to be hovering around $40 after spiking up to $50 and dropping back down again. Remember, that we ought to expect extreme volatility this year.

XCap's regression line at 120moz is Y = 8.3438X - 92.195

So at $40 spot I'm expecting an underlying asset value of around  $3.84 before the end of the year.

Let's suppose we are still trading at a 50% discount to peer group (unlikely but let's be conservative). That would give us about a $1.92 market price.

Now let's suppose a mid-cap or major comes in and makes a bid. Negotiations ensue and a take-out price of a 25% premium is agreed. That would give us circa $2.40.

We get a near four bagger on today's heavily discounted prices.

A buyer gets a $1.44 discount to asset valuation and the potential to prove up 200moz or even 300moz in 2012 - 2013.

The obvious variables are spot price, resources, discount to market and takeover premium. I suspect the latter three are pretty conservative assumptions, it's only really the spot price that is the wild car assumption. Suffice to say that even if it doesn't go further than $32, you would still be looking at a 110p exit, cereris paribus.

I'll take between $1.76 and $2.40, subject to the silver spot price thanks very much. With luck the 50% discount to market will erode as the year wears on.

You must be a little insane to sell AGQ before Q4, even then it makes a lot more sense to wait for the bid to roll in.

Silver may go nuclear now, Arian will follow...