TTarget for AAA vs KCLThere is my view if we have 300 Mt (M+I) and 200 M shares
Takeover Target for AAA Compare to Potash One ( KCL) - --2011/02/13
From older post :
“ The Potash One Feasibility study (prepared by SNC Lavalin) concluded that the mine could produce 2.86 milion tons of potash every year for a minimun of 47 years. The total extracted would then be 134.42 million tonnes of potash. The total fully diluted number of share is 96,529,429. And you know that the takeover price was $4.50 / share.”
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So they received $4.50 x 96,529,429 Shares = $ 434,382,430 for 134,420,000T that will be extract in the soil.--------------à500 m deep—28% Grade, before 6% lost.
That`s give a TARGET OVER PRICE OF $ 3.23 / Ton of in situ Potash for KCL
Valuation of AAA shares: 300 M T (M+I) and 200 M shares. Grade of 24% à100-300m deep
1) GRADE: $3.23 x 24% (AAA grade) /28% (KCL grade) = $2.76/TM-------à MINUS $ 0.47/T
2) BUILT A MINE: $3.23 x $2.5B (KCL) / $1B(AAA) = $9.07/TM------------à PLUS $ 5.84/T
3) OPÉRATION COST: $3.23 x $111/T (KCL) / $60/T (AAA)=$5.95/TM----à PLUS $ 2.72/T
TOTAL PLUS & MINUS = $ 8.09 / T
AAA--Value of Target over price Share today; = ($8.09+$3.23) x 300 M T / 200 M shares = $ 16.98 / Share
Make your numbers if you do not like mines
cote 101