RE: TTarget for AAA vs KCLAn other way to see this
Takeover Target for AAA Compare to Potash One ( KCL) - --2011/02/20
From older post :
“ The Potash One Feasibility study (prepared by SNC Lavalin) concluded that the mine could produce 2.86 million tons of potash every year for a minimun of 47 years. The total extracted would then be 134.42 million tonnes of potash. The total fully diluted number of share is 96,529,429. And you know that the takeover price was $4.50 / share.”
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So they received $4.50 x 96,529,429 Shares = $ 434,382,430 for 134,420,000T that will be extract in the soil.--------------à500 m deep—28% Grade, before 6% lost.
That`s give a TARGET OVER PRICE OF $ 3.23 / Ton of in situ Potash for KCL
If we look closely the report, the Cie that bought KCL are ready to pay or spend this:
1) $ 2,500 M to built the mine / 134.42 M T= $ 18.52 / in situ Tons (M+I)2) $111/T to operate it( look the report) = $111.00/ in situ Tons (M+I)3) $3.23 / T for a 28% potash depot ( to buy it) = $ 3.23/ in situ Tons (M+I)So this Cie want to spend approx :+/- $ 132.75 / T in situ to acquired KCL Cie. If they sell
That for $400 / T, that’s a profit before contingency, tax and etc… of $267.25 / T
We must considering that +/- ($ 132 - 20% contingency) / in situ T of a 28% grade potash is the MAGIC NUMBER
For AAA, the Buyout offer, will be $105/T x 300MT(M+I) = $ 31,500 M less
1- $1,000 M to built the mine = $ 1,000 M2- ( $60+$30Transport) x 300MT operating cost = $ 27,000 M That’s give a Total of $ 3,500 M for 200M of shares or $17.50 / T (M+I)
Somebody must send this to BHP-------- TO.T. for AAA = $17.50 / share-Minimum
Cote101- PS: don’t’ worry to correct me – I will appreciate