Coal Prices @ 350/tonne next two yearsTaken from the WTN board.
Anglo bets on tight supply to bed in met coal at US$350/t
21/Feb/2011
Global giant, Anglo American - which fared better than competitors in the December-January floods across Australia's main metallurgical coal area of the Bowen Basin - is banking on contract prices around US$350/t for met products in the next two Calendar Year Quarters.
Just for fun lets say we mine 5 million like the Xstrata website says. 1.25 million to us. Use the low number for met coal yield at 70% so we get 875,000 tonnes a year. Take off 30 dollars for semi soft coking coal. So $320 a tonne. Cost to mine and put on a ship is $28 and to wash it is $ 10(propably high) but lets be safe. Cost $38 FOB ship. $20 tonne to deliver anywhere in the world (I think it is 3.5 times further from Aussieland to China) $58 cost sell for 320 leaves $272 a tonne profit. $272 times 238 million a year in profit. With a PE ration of 8 we get a market cap of 1.9 billion dollars or 19 dollars a share with 100 million shares outstanding.
Just for fun folks. Lets see what kind of mayhem we see tomorrow. My guess is we will be testing our support before the PFS is delivered as markets around the world consolidate their tremendous gains and wait for green grass.