TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
cote101on Feb 22, 2011 11:46pm
324 Views
Post# 18177936
RE: New Share Holders Should Know
RE: New Share Holders Should KnowKamanow: I thing that you underevaluate the true value of a low OPEX
For the Capex it will be +/- $1B, thats give AAA a plus value over KCL of $ 5.71/ share ( I fully agree)
For The Intresec value of Potash ($2.1/T)---> $ 7.00/ share ( i fully agree)
BUT:
For the OPEX, KCL is $111/ T of pure KCI so that's give ($111 x 28% KCI = $31 / T (M+I)
For AAA, considering cost of labor( $7.00 / day for local & $10.00 / Hre for Food & lodging)) + low deep deposit and an extra $$ of $30/T for hauling it.
I believe that ($60+$30 = $90 / T of pure KCI is a good bet. That's gives us ( $90 x 24%KCI = $ 22 / T (M+I)
The plus value in our favor is ( $31 - $ 22 = $9.00 / T (M+I)----> $9 x 583MT / 175MS ----> $30.00 / Share
The OPEX is the most important plus Value here.
If i resume , we will got 1) $ 7.00 / Share to buy the Potahs in situ
2) $ 5.71 / Share for the COPEX
3) $30.00 / Share for the OPEX
TOTAL---------> $42.71 / Share (175M) if we use 200M S --->$37.63 less 20% ( cont. & risk) -->$30. / S
I think that we have to divide that by 1.58 ( 1.58KCI = 1K2O), that's give +/- $18.98 / share ( if 200M S)
I will be very happy that's somebody valid and correct my numbers, NB: $400/ T is for K2O, i thing so.
Anyway, Karma, very great and valuable post that i sent to all my friends and co-workers
cote101