Bizarre Trading TodayTrading in Oncolytics today has been bizarre right from the beginning of the day. It has me wondering if the people involved in the buy side manipulation have a grip on reality. You can fool all of the people some of the time. You can fool some of the people all of the time. You can not fool all of the people all of the time. If a retail investor was smart enough to buy Oncolytics’ shares, why would they be fooled into selling them at a depressed price when partnership news is pending?
RJC2827, I did not understand the opening of ONC this morning. In an earlier reply, you indicated that trades occur on the TSX when there is a computer match on the bid and ask. According to RBC Direct Investing at 8:21 AM, ONC was set to open at yesterday’s close of $6.22 with 3800 shares on the bid and 3,100 shares on the ask. I checked at 9:29 and the bid and ask price had fallen to $6.08 with 6800 on the bid and 3100 on the ask. At 9:37, ONC still had not opened but there was no change in the bid and ask. RBC Direct provides quote information in real time so there is no timing delay to justify an open match not translating into a trade.
My interpretation is that a professional trader was on the both the bid and ask. The TSX system would be designed to anticipate a trader willing to on either side of a trade at the same time and the system would wait for another trader to provide the opposite bid or ask. The trader’s original $6.22 bid/ask was intended to open the market at yesterdays close. With the positive press release regarding the UK Metastatic Colorectal trial, the trader changed his mind. He wanted to send a negative message to the market regarding the press release. He dropped the price to $6.08 with ONC opening down 4 cents at $6.18.
For readers interested in ONCY, the bid prior to the opening was 100 shares at $6.06 with an offer of 100 shares at $6.64. ONCY had not opened by 9:37 with no change in the bid or ask. It opened up 5 cents at $6.29.
The trading pattern suggests that some professional traders are having a rough day. As of around 12:30 trading is heavy due to professional players. I do not see many retail investors being involved in trades of 10,000 shares or more. They require too much cash. I see most retail transactions under 2000 shares to keep them within the family budget. I arbitrarily attribute a trade to a professional when a see a trade using the ladder involving 5000 shares or more.
Around 12:30, ONCY is down 5 cents at $6.19 with a volume of 153,251. The bid is by a pro with 6500 shares at $6.19. The ask is 800 shares at $6.20. Looking at RBC Directs’ graph for trading during the day, I count 9 trades involving at least 5,000 shares, with 5 of them above 10,000 shares and 3 close to 20,000 shares. As a rough guess this trading accounts for 105,000 shares of the 153,251. The most recent 20,000 transaction was a sale of that caused the low of the day at $6.00. It took the next buy transaction of 10,000 shares to cause the price to rebound to $6.20. It looks like we have pros with different objectives. One is competing for shares while the other wants to manage the stock price.
The story on the TSX is harder to read on the graph since there was a trade of 50,000 shares causing the scale of 5,000 trades to be more of a guess. ONC is down 7 cents at $6.15 on a volume of 293, 729. There is a pro trolling on the bid with 15,200 shares at $6.15 and an ask of $6.16 with a modest number being offered (I forgot to write it down). I count 13 trades involving at least 10,000 shares with 5 around 20,000 and 1 at 50,000. Over 220,000 shares of the 293,729 volume can be attributed to these trades.
My summary of the trading today until midday is that it not been consistent with the press release. The combined volume of 445,000 shares suggests that the press release was a material news item. The stock price is down suggesting that it is bad news. It was a minor release and positive news. My take is that most retail investors are not being deceived and are holding onto their shares. Some professional traders are taking advantage and buying shares being offered by traders trying to manage the stock price.
Is the market starting to be forward looking in its valuation of Oncolytics?