Nuvo Pharmaceuticals Inc NRIFF

RE: The show "no curtain"

[HippygirL74]

Great post ybuzz.  It points to just what i want to add.  Ever study Elliott waves anyone?  The sentiment and sp are deeply related and two thirds of the time investors get it all wrong.  You have to imagine a bouncing ball.  The ball hits the ground- it bounces up- it plateaus- it falls- it hits the ground again.  The ball represents sentiment.  The ball hitting the ground represents the lowest pessimism.  The ball rising up again represents optimism.  The highest point represents the highest optimism.  The fall represents increasing pessimism again. 

There are really just 3 states: bottom, top, momentum.  It is at the bottom and top (or 2 thirds of the time) that we get it wrong.  The bottom and the top are the extremes where people over-react in comparison with existing momentum.  What happens is that at the bottom, which is all negative, a new momentum for expectations is created which looks like happy days in comparison, and so the momentum goes up again. 

The problem in this moving ball picture is not time but control of your fears(at the bottom) and hopes(at the top).  What i see typically is that a lot of people become nihilists and everything is too bad in the extreme.  And this is probably wrong. That's why i have been buying.  i believe that we are near the bottom and sellers may have forgotten the basic rule to making money: buy lower and sell higher.  Only hindsight will tell us if we picked the absolute bottom but we are close enough.  One analyst thinks 45 cents: that's probably the top (probably wrong).  But anywhere near the top is probably correct. 

Here is what i have to say about management: 

Thinking of the bouncing ball analogy again the trust of management started off at the bottom, went up, plateaued, down again and hit the ground again. It's a typical cycle.  The acquisition of this trust took a long time.  But trust can be lost in a moment.  It's all a matter of perception.  You might think that time was lost, but time cannot be lost, it can only pass.  So what was lost was the relationship.  And like the bouncing ball, it will continue toward another cycle. So when the sp returns following the waves i have been mentioning, management will once again be in favour. 

i plan to sit back now and watch the next up cycle.  Let me repeat that 3 quarters since launch is not a long time.  i cannot believe that Covidien is incapable of selling 10 times that of Canada.  Time will tell.  Besides Covidien, i'd watch Pallidin too.  They might also show interest in buying Nuvo?