RE: Oil to double (inside story)"Lets calculate: 5,000 barrels at $ 200 per barrel of oil at 365 daysis: $ 365 million dollars in 1st year alone, or 6X the market cap ofLFD".
Somebody please explain to taxiboy how a production contract works. I have tried to do this previously, but he does not get it?
A 40% interest in a psc gives a company the right to pay 40% of the capital costs, except in Kurdistan this is actually 50% of the costs because you are also carrying the krg share. In return for this privelege, the oil companies will net about 10% of the production, or for lfd about a 5% net share of production.
So if the project produces 5000 bopd, lfd's share is only 250 bopd, after all costs have been recovered. At $200/bbl this would generate only about $18 million/yr net to lfd! (Compare this number to taxiboy's $365 million?). However, as several other posters have stated, this is quite moot because if oil reaches $200/bbl, economies will crash and demand quickly declines.
But let's be honest, lfd is not here to produce only 5000 per day. A successful project must assume at least 10 wells which would yield $180 million per year, or fewer wells producing at higher rates due to horizontal drilling (are you following taxiboy?) Sounds good, but please note this occurs after 10 successful wells and with oil at $200/bbl.
So if all works out, it could be a successful project, but nowhere near the hype and numbers suggested by taxiboy, who simply does not have any comprehension as to how these projects will work, but then again he has said he is in it for the pre-drill runup and will be nowhere to be seen during the hardwork of actually developing and producing a discovery, which very definitely will not be Q4 2011!
If taxiboy wants to continue sending his messages and analysis to "everyone", he should at least gets his facts and numbers right. I'm not holding my breathe. Over to you maybestealer