RE: RE: RE: RE: WiLAN Enterprise Value (w/30% AnnuBrief Primer:
Basically I'm trying to match a plausible revenue stream with the stated Weighted Average Life Remaining (WALR) estimate in the MD&A (pg 13) of 6 years. To calculate the WALR I've just taken each year's projected revenue and multiplied it by the number of years until it will be received. I've then divided each one by the total project revenues ($2,233 million). I've then added up all these numbers to come up with a weighted average.
So, for example, I've assumed $110 million for 2011and multiplied it by 0.5 years (assume the revenue comes in at mid-year) and then divided it by the total revenues (in what I think is the most plausible scenario the total is $2,233 million over 10 years) to come up with 0.0246 years. I then do this for all 10 years and add all 10 of these numbers up and come up with a figure close to 6 years. Here are my detailed calcs below. You can play with the length of the expected cashflows and the revenue growth but it's hard to come up with a solution that calculates to 6 years that is different than my scenario:
| | A | B | A*B | (A*B)/$2,233 |
| | | Time until | | |
| Year | Revenue | Received | | |
| 2011 | $ 110.00 | 0.5 | 55.0 | 0.025 |
| 2012 | $ 126.50 | 1.5 | 189.8 | 0.085 |
| 2013 | $ 145.48 | 2.5 | 363.7 | 0.163 |
| 2014 | $ 167.30 | 3.5 | 585.5 | 0.262 |
| 2015 | $ 192.39 | 4.5 | 865.8 | 0.388 |
| 2016 | $ 221.25 | 5.5 | 1216.9 | 0.545 |
| 2017 | $ 254.44 | 6.5 | 1653.8 | 0.740 |
| 2018 | $ 292.60 | 7.5 | 2194.5 | 0.983 |
| 2019 | $ 336.49 | 8.5 | 2860.2 | 1.281 |
| 2020 | $ 386.97 | 9.5 | 3676.2 | 1.646 |
| | | | | |
| Total | $2,233.41 | | | 6.12 |
Chi