RE: MESSAGE OF HOPE.....Hey you know what, this was not a bad summary.
Taxiboy makes some points and is more in his league when he does not try to explain/understand technical or financial issues. As previously, when interpreting technical and fiscal issues, there has been evidence of wrong conclusions because Taxiboy does not understand the industry; however, in this post he talks about "soft" issues and these can be interpreted according to your particular perspective, 1/2 full vs 1/2 empty, optimist vs pessimist etc.
My slant on his issues as follows:
a) LFD has a solid and proven management
This is a real stretch. Stan Bharti made money in mining. This is oil and I do not see much oil experience on bod; however, I am here because of SB as he is a PROMOTER! They will pr at every opportunity and present as favorable picture as legally allowed to pump sp.
b) Insider buying
Not sure if this is a plus? Management has accumulated a big share position, but they pay themselves huge bonuses and consulting fees, so in fact have accumulated their shares with company money
c) Strong Institutional Ownership
Agree that they get good support. SB has his followers for sure who are looking for repeat of Desert Sun story
d) Historical drilling
This has been kicked to death. Old wells give lfd something on their block which no other explorer in Kurdistan has, but is this old field big enough? This is not a given based on sketchy old data and will be proven or not by new drilling
e) Network support
I disagree with this comment. No evidence that mining drilling experience has any relevance to oil drilling? Clearly there has been no great demonstration of company competence at Qara Dagh, although that is operated by niko. This will be the very first well drilled by lfd. SB or Ahmed Said do not have this kind of experience!
f) Miltary contacts
g) Kurds government
Clearly lfd is here because of their contacts (generals and Ahmad Said) with kurds. Not sure that the Kurds have reserved a "can't miss" block to their buddies? This is dangerous area near krg-Iraq and krg-Iranian border. I think kurds are sensitive to transparency and so gave this block to lfd more because drilling may be less challenging than other more mountainous blocks. Having a few generals around may be very helpful if they get into a libya-type situation?
h) Soaing Oil price
Indeed their timing is great
i) Oil production in Q4-2011
Yes the presence of old wells will give the opportunity for earlier production than those blocks with no wells. Again the drilling has to work out and there is a chance that a new completed well may prove to be uneconomic if production tapers off? But will this happen in Q4? The first well is delayed so I think production in Q4 is unrealistic and lfd will soon change this schedule, but it is not that critical Q4 vr Q1/Q2 in 2012 is not much different.
Warants/Charts/Mid East stability or instability
I don't think this is much of a factor. Not sure what charts for company like lfd has to do with anything? SP will move on good news or good rumor.
Nothing Has Changed
I do disagree with this statement. LFD put out new resource report which clearly lowers potential of "low risk" old field. New potential is added in higher risk exploration prospects which previously were not evaluated for potential reserves, but which will require more seismic to identify drillable prospects. I think after the initial reaction to company promotion, clearer thinking recognized this fact and sp has drifted downward ever since