RE: RPG entry pointThe details of your analysis are wrong. SJT has 60MW certified, Geysers has 25MW certified. That's 85 MW, not 50MW. Big difference.
Magma's US plant at Soda Lake is a crap property: refurbished plant, depleted resource in use since 1987 that they spend lots of money to re-inject, below-market power purchase agreement, and it doesn't enjoy economies of scale. SJT's resource is bigger, hotter and its plant and turbines will be state of the art. There's no comparison between the economics of these projects.
Even a very conservative analysis of the potential cash flow of SJT1 (36 MW expansion plus existing 10MW) and Geysers (25MW) leads us to a free cash flow of at least 20 million a year. 20 million multiplied by 10X FCF = 200 million, more than the current market cap.
Ram's not going to run out of money. They certify 4 more MW and they get access to 70 million dollars immediately for the SJT2 project loan.
Geothermal companies fail because they can't finance, not because they hit dry holes. The resource at SJT is definitely there (it's been extensively studied for decades and it's estimated to be a 200MW resource). Geothermal drilling is fussy and difficult but total failure is very, very unlikely. The drilling at SJT and Orita becomes easier with each attempt, the modelling and targets improve quickly.