Market is wrong..not valuing PBN rightThis is an absolute steal....market has it wrong...this baring oil not crashing to 60 bucks will be 21 dollar stock by June/July....
Everyone step away from the computer and relax.....the drop is on low volume....
The market is not undertsanding how profitable Petrobakken production really is...Not all barrels are equal...here is a rough envelope estimate calulation that while estimated proves my point:
| Q4 | Oil Weighting | | |
Petrobakken | | | | |
Cashflow | 160817 | 85% | | |
Production | 41333 | | | |
| | | | |
Penwest | | | | |
Cashflow | 305000 | 63.40% | Including Heavy Oil |
Production | 166148 | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
37065 | | | | |
78398 | | | | |
| | | | |
What my point is...I do not think people grasp how profitable Petrobakken production is per barrel....rough cal...says
a simulated Petrobakken would only need to produce 78398 barrels a day to match the same cashflow as Penwest producing 166148 a day....easy to see without doing any cals....PBN produces 53% of Penwest cashflow while producing 41333 versus 166148. People get caught up too much in total barrels a day and not enough on cashflow.....Who care if you are pdocuing a pile of natural gas in you barrels per day number.
But the biggest 2 things the market is missing is PBN got around 75 bucks per barrel for oil in Q4...mostly due to enbridge problem......Q1 should be alot higher. Secondly...everyone is focusing on Bakken yet not one person will mention how sick the Caridium success is...I mean Q1 of 20100 this area produced 1700 BOE a day and now is over 9500 BOE a day...sick growth....and considering PBN drilled like bandits in Q1...I mean go look on rig spud list...a new cardium well was drilled it seemed like everyday second day at least....anyone care to guess how high Cardium production will be by q3 of 2011?
I grabbed 2200 shares today and I am very comfortable....comparede to CPG this is a joke.
CPG is going to have eventually same Bakken issues as PBN has...only PBN has the Cardium to save the day...