Slubicki is dirty but a geniousI've been a opti long for over a year now, originally buying in at 1.84, 1.95, 2.42. i don't feel like i've lost anything yet, these prices are a rare opportunity to get in on a multi billion dollar oil company for only a quarter.
in the last report opc assets were valued at 4.1b with 2.8b debt. that leaves 1.3b for shareholder equity/282m shares=$4+ a share. as soon as a event happens that makes the market feel opti is safe from bankruptcy it will jump to the $4 range fast.
in q4 production was 29k/bpd at a oil price in the $80's. i cant be bothered to go digging through the reports but revenue was something around $84mil and a net loss for the quarter around $4m?. anyway with the recent spike in oil prices we can add 20% to the revenue giving opti POSITIVE cash flow. lots of people don't think this is that big of a deal because it's not enough to meet the debt payments. but from a buyers perspective, would you invest $4b+ into something that causes you to consistently lose money? no.
Long lake is located near fort mcmurray, AB. the winters really suck and dip into the -50's. that season is the worst for any company to operate not just opti/nexen. the fact that we had the production we did surprises me and impresses me. with winter disappearing production will slowly continuously increase. all we need is to average 33-34k for a entire quarter and opti will have positive cash flow of 30m+ to show on their balance sheets.
now on to the SP, it has been manipulated big time. we all know that. but it works to our advantage. opti originally started as a $15 stock and the big people aren't going to settle for a $2-3 buy out. nor will they let the stock go to
. the cheap shares will entice a buyer who will be able to save hundreds of millions by buying their 10% first.
Slubicki let the SP tank and i believe thats why. he was brought in to sell opti and i believe that is what he will do, he is playing his cards very well for what he has to work with imo. bringing in lazard could of been a intentional move to drop the sp for a soon to be buyer.
do your own DD, i'm a new 20 year old investor so i could be completely wrong but if i'm right i'll be richer than all my friends combined! but i believe this stock will either be bought out for $10+ or opti will make ends meet with production increases/small asset sale (like 5%) and it will jump to $4 until a full corporate sale can be complete.
r8/h8/masterb8