Target Pricing
UBill, I'm sorry to hear your expectations have been lowered.
As you know, I have been long and accumulating stock for several years, and the reason is that the valuation models with metals prices more realistically set closer to current spot prices indicate high upside potential, provided there is an intention to sell or mine the JV sooner than any of the supposed plans of RioT and IVN disclosed to date. Or there is some drilling result excitement and a major strike or expansion of mineable targets - on our 100% land or the JV bt preferably on both!
I believe my optimism is shared by many others - I don't know of many other solid play exploration companies where one repeatedly hears from a core group of experienced junior mine holders "this is one of the largest positions I have ever held in a junior miner, and I'm not giving up on it." Notwithstanding the frustrations with mgmt and the progress or lack thereof in Mongolia, and the sideshows in the US, Peru, China, the OT assets are hugely promising. And the anecdotal evidence seems to be supported by the trading - the market is volume-thin, and it sure looks like a great part of the volume is MM positions being traded back and forth among a small group - which means the daily sheets would make very interesting reading in the sad event of some blow-up or disappointment delivered by the Board of Directors. As would the company's correspondence and records concerning the progress of exploration vs. public disclosure.
My own belief remains that while there has been a cooperative "play ball" strategy to support the politics and development of OT, at the end of the day there will be a fair value payout - and it will be much better than what I would call a paltry $5 or so.
Call me a dreamer. I too worry I have bought into a false expectation, but then I go back to the disclosure and data, follow the story right from the property acquisition from Mongol Gazar ... and my intuition is screaming - hang tough.
On the other hand, if I was in Mongolia, as you and I discussed some time ago, I might have all my cash tied up in good real estate near the airport or the most likely areas for new middle-class apartments around UB, or perhaps at the new southern terminus of the expanded railway. I see India is considering building a steel mill and pumping in a few billions more in development, and notwithstanding the moaning and groaning that seems to be a hangover from the Soviet experience, the ripple-effect and improvement in opportunity for thousands of Mongolians is growing and will grow.
I'm convinced determined patience will be rewarded.
We shall see. Hope you are around to share the rewards if it turns out we had it right all along ... this was always the "entree".
cg