RE: Production targetOilandgas111,
Thank you for a nice post. However, I don't agree with some of your estimates. A few things that I believe is wrong with your calculation are:
1. Production of the horizontal wells. The company stated that they produced 4-500 boe/day initially from this first well. That was when about half of the horizontal part of the well was "clogged" and did not produce. So a fully functional well will probably produce around 800 bboe. Not 400 like you base your calculations on. And about depletion, how big this will be, and how it will impact recovery levels we don't know anything about that yet. This is the first ever drilled horizontal well in Taranaki with multifraccing.
2. Size of Sidewinder. You calculate that sidewinder #2 will produce about the same amount as Sidewinder#1. This is not logical since the net pay zone is 47 meters compared to sidewinder #1's 14 meters. The reserves in this area (broadside) is probably much bigger then the company have estimated so far. I don't think Mr Markt has clearly understood what 47 meters compared to 14 means when it comes to production and reservers.
3. 40 millions in cash at year end? You must add the money the the company will get from the options, if you're going to calculate with fully diluted number of shares. And this will not happen if you are right and the shares are traded at about 6 cad this year end.
How much the market values the east coast today is completely impossible to know. It could be from 50 to 200 cents a share.