My take on the recent newsJust thought I should share my thinking on the operational update, which was a bit anti climatic, unfortunately.
If we start with Kazakhstan, it's good news are that they are in the process of spudding 2 more wells on the Doris structure, which they most likely will be able to reuse as producers once the 2nd phase facilities and export terminal are up and running. It's also important to notice that these wells are placed using 3D, which will allow them to appraise the structures in a more refined way, as well as going after other targets. Without 3D you're pretty much drilling in the dark, or as least with very little light...
Moving on to AK3, it was disappointing that they did not release some preliminary test results, and it is also confusing that they both say that testing started in February AND March but they are not saying which zone they have started testing. Probably they are just setting up the equipment and preparing to perforate the first zone. These wells are deep and running the wire line tools all the way down to 3000m+ takes time. I had also hoped they would test more than 3 zones since they mentioned 8 in previous NRs, but probably they found out that those zones were water wet after analyzing the logs more thoroughly. It's hard to tell if zones contain producible oil or just residual oil saturation based on the preliminary data you receive while drilling. On the positive side, there are two sandstone (ss) sequences which should prove to be very productive. The uncertainty with the carbonate zone is larger due to the inherent heterogeneity (variation in properties such as porosity and permeability) that you find in carbonates. Hopefully they will be able to flow this zone after a simple acid wash (like in Doris-1), but I wouldn't be surprised if they start talking about radial drilling here as well...20 m is a thick section though, so they will definitely want to flow this. We'll just have to equip ourselves with some more patience i guess, end April is not too far away.
On Kalypso there is not much to comment on, since they have still some way to go. But I will comment on something I saw oiln'gas (for someone with that name you seem to know fairly little about the industry) write. If you had done your homework (again...) you would have known that they used a smaller rig to drill the top hole and that the heavy rig (which they need to cope with the pressures at +3000m) just arrived on site in February. With the current ROP they should be able to reach TD in 2-3 months time, which would probably mean testing in q3 or q4 should they find something interesting.
Finally on Kaz, it think it's very positive that the phase 2 test production proceeds according to plan, I had hoped to hear something about pricing. and netbacks, but guess we have to wait a bit on that. Maybe something will come out in the cc tomorrow.
Just quickly on Tajikistan, it's good to see that they continue to collect data, this is a must if you want a good partner and hopefully some carry going forward. Less positive news on KOM201, it looks like the primary target did not produce in the test as they had hoped, and that's why they talk about radial drilling here too. Let's wait and see what happens here, but to me this is just icing on the cake, all focus is on Doris and her siblings.
On Uz, I'm quite curious to see what the netback on that recent 1100 bbl/day well is, it has the potential of bringing in some fresh cash to TPL, which God knows they dearly need to fend off a share sale until they mist has cleared on Kaz.
Will write again after the cc if something else comes out, and then the reserve report on Doris should be just around the corner.
Hang in there, I'm convinced we eventually will be rewarded for our patience.
All the best,
Darcy