RE: RE: earnings outNo real surprises. They hint that the Thermal prgram is being pulled in, but just committed to a YE 2011 date. Getting thermal results is key to the future of this company, and although first steam is important, more important is when they pull the first emulsion out. Sounds like they won't get this done before YE 2011 reserve estimates are updated - and that possibly means no buy-out until 2012. I think the challenge with thermal recovery right now, is that many companies have struggled with getting it right, and so there would be a large risk premium, or rather penalty, on a buyout price until the thermal recovery proves higher recovery factors and boosts reserves. The caveat here would be if a number of companies (or countries) have their eye on BNK, then perhaps one move try to move first..
The switch to IFRS accounting standards is interesting - this is the first I've heard of it, and it will make it tough to interpret the Q1 results on a quarter to quarter and year over year basis.
I have not seen info on a conference call, but hopefully, on the conference call they'll get some questions about Q1 guidance. Based on the $6.8M Net income for Q4 - that would give about 12 cents per share for full year 2011 assuming no increase in production and no rise in oil prices during 2011 (which is of course not the case). With the increase in production, and the sustainined rise in oil prices, I would expect that Q1 Net income should be closer to the NI for all of 2010. That would make Q1 results a significant positive event IMO.
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BTW - here is the latest spin on the "negative" impact the Earthquake will have on hydrocarbon fuel demand.
The price of benchmark U.S. crude fell during the first few days after the March 11 disaster on concern Japan's economy could slip into recession, which would reduce demand for oil.
But analysts say the amount of fuel Japan must import to make up for shutdown nuclear generation will greatly outstrip the immediate drop in consumer demand. Goldman Sachs estimates Japan must import 247,000 barrels a day of oil to compensate for the country's lost nuclear capacity while demand will drop only 16,000 barrels a day due to an expected economic slowdown in the first half.