Lightstream Resources Ltd. LSTMF

Petrobakken Puzzle...

[nachochip]

I think I finally have an idea on why Petrobakken is trading so low....it's the analysts following the company.
Read an analyst report (the rest are similar) and this is what analysts are estimating:

Analyst 1
650M Cashflow
-180M Dividends
-800M Capex
Total=-330M

Available Credit Capacity 370
So then ending credit capacity would be (370-330)=40 million

Analyst 2

660M Cashflow
-180M Dividends
-800M Capex
Total=-320M

Available Credit Capacity 370
So then ending credit capacity would be (370-320)=50 million

THESE ANALYST ARE WRONG!  Pathetic they print out this garbage!

These analysts are wrong cause all the basically did is take Q4 cashflow and multiple by 4 to get 2011 cashflow...
They failed too dig into the details..Petrobakken sold oil for about 76 bucks a barrel in Q4 and for the year around 74 bucks.  Yes, I realize that Petro will not get exact WTI prices but Q1 will be a heck of alot higher than 76 bucks.

Nachochip Estimate (ultra conservative)

assumed 95 dollar oil price received
assumed production average of 41,333

Cashflow: 880M
-180 Dividends
-800M Capex
Total=-100M

Available Credit Capacity 370
So then ending credit capacity would be (370-100)=270 million

So I didn't even take into consideration ANY production gains for 2011...hence making this estimate very conservative and the debt situation does not look like a problem.  How this analysts did not consider a higher oil price in their model is beyond me.....  Even if my oil price recived is alittle too high...production gains should make that up.  Heck...with any kind of good production gains and oil stays over 100....Petrobakken can actually end up not using anymore credit capacity in 2011.


What really ticks me off...is all this analysts expect over 100 buck oil for 2011..YET they did not use that price in Petrobakken modeling...it works both ways MR CFA!  PetroBakken doesn't even have to raise production by a single barrel and is grossly undervalued.