RE: RE: Bullish Insiders!In the cc the company said that they stopped buying back shares at the end of Dec, 2010, plus they sold around 5,000 bbls/d of production to raise cash $130 million or more - can't recall exactly how much. So clearly they need funds to finance their Bakken and Cardium drilling programs.
Hey John, this production they sold is gassy low netback stuff they ended up with when they bought Results/Rondo. It made sense to sell as in Alberta all they are focusing on is high netback Cardium, and I suspect they could be going into another tight oil play, which I will not mention as I do not want to start rumors....hint...go look through all 2011 well licenses and you will see PBN drilling a "different well". After an aq it makes sense to sell non-core stuff...BUT THIS is the sad part...analysts focus so much on short term metrics....PBN would be prob 2 bucks higher right now if they had kept these cr*ppy gas assets as they would have exceeded q4 production targets. But they did not sell these assests for financial reasons....people forget that PBn cashflow is high and that if they ever ran into financial problems...the capex budget is so big that if PBN was backed into a corner...ample things in the capex budget they could cut like land aq or scale back on EOR or even drilling. Capex is not set in stone...only reason they have 800 capex in 2011 is because they have sick opportunties...within 2-6 months...analysts are BNN are going to be yapping holy cr*p,,,PBN only started drilling seriously in Cardium last July and already have 13-15k BOD in production......
Posters on all forums I read on PBN are ultra negative becuase they bought in at such high prices and are losing money....but at 18.50 a share..an absolute steal....I have yet to see ONE SINGLE argument that the stock is overvalued.....a dabble in juniors but recently I have took a big postion in this.,..core of my portfolio.
I also like how people mention CPG-Cresecent Point. Yes a great great performer...but does anyone notice some problems. CPG business model is based on issuing shares tto raise cash to make up for the cashflow shortfall each year...this works short to medium term but evenutally this is going to catch up with CPG. CPG is overdistributing...it is just a matter of when they fall....have no chyrstal ball...but they may last longer without falling as long as their stock price stays high so they can raise cash at a high price. Why aren't analysts questioning the fact that CPG payout ratio is like 70%...how is that long term sustainable...and the sad part is CPG is hedged so much even a higher oil price will not get them out of that mess.
Another thing is I suspect CPG is having some of the same Sask Bakken problems that PBN is having and was honest with the market about. Why do I suspect this? Do the math...add up all the production CPG bought in 2010 to the Jan1st,2010 production number and alot of CPG growth was bought..the development capital expenditures did not increase production much...just covered decline rates and maybe abit more...but development capital did not produce much of the production growth. Funny that Analysts bashed PBN for Bakken decline rates yet the same analysts say nothing of CPG having huge declines in Bakken too...er..does only one part of the Bakken decline. We can only guess and speculate...but I think the CPG move into the Albrta Bakken was the same reason PBN got into the Cardium....I think Sask Bakken is more of a flat try to keep production same as last year property that a high grwith property anymore.....and sadly at 47 bucks...CPG is priced for absolute operational perfection...lol...better hope CPG never has a hiccup....