GREY:SXRZF - Post by User
Comment by
wavepsycheon Mar 26, 2011 4:40pm
268 Views
Post# 18345548
RE: RE: JAIF Update
RE: RE: JAIF UpdateJohnital wrote: The question is given the radiation which is NOW being released from the plant will it cause the readings to go ABOVE the danger level in a WEEKS time hundreds of miles from the plant.
Good question.
Only data can answer that question weeks from now. Doing proper DD in this space requires projections into the future to ensure a good risk/ reward buy point. I don't have a crystal ball, nor do you. Maybe a Delphi method of people putting their money where their mouth is will shed some light. Intrade is one such site; at this writing it stands as follows ...
Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011 :35% chance
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747673
Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 50km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011: 27.5% chance
https://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747674
Are you willing to risk fresh capital with a 35% chance that negative news (i.e., a negative answer to your question) will come out?