GREY:FTPLF - Post by User
Comment by
OptsyEagleon Mar 29, 2011 12:22pm
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Post# 18355722
RE: Dog Days
RE: Dog DaysDoes anyone care to comment on why FTP SP continues to perform so poorly ? The technicals are all messed up ... Mmmmhhhh, I gather the profit takers have gotten a hold of this one ?!
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1) No patience. It will be 3 more quarters before FTP starts to make the money that makes today's price very low. Until then it is very high. That's like over 270 days investors have to wait until they see the big numbers. That's too long term for most. uchuck lasted longer then even I expected.
2) People watch FTP do nothing but go straight up for a year and even though they should have known there would be a pause and pullback, when it happen's they assume the party is over and something fundamentally is wrong.
3) QSF started the selling, and I assume a few insiders will want to sell a few shares (only way to collect their bonus) and had to wait until post-Q4 release. We are seeing that currently.
4) 6 months ago everyone felt that DP prices and cotton prices will keep rising, rising and rising and now they think the prices will keep falling and falling and falling. The reality will be in the middle and again this should have been known a year ago, but investors keep looking at charts and not logic and reality.
5) 6 months ago everyone (except me and maybe a few silent ones) felt that Chad would end up buying 4 more Thurso plants for a song and a dance and now they realize that even if he does achieve it, it cannot possibly have the same financial boost as Thurso did. Although I knew this all along, I still see no reason why it cannot still be very, very accretive and who said it has to be dissolving pulp. That was the original plan but plans can be adjusted.
6) Fear is 2 times more powerful then greed.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter what happens to the stock between now and about 2015 because I have a sneeky suspicion that Chad Wasilenkoff has a lot more things to do. You see, what the stock market has given zero value to is this. Since FTP has forward sold its DP production for the next 5 years and 10 years in another contract, you can safely calculate that FTP will earn a minimum of $7 per share from 2012 to at least 2017. Now that is almost $100 million dollars per year and over 5 years that is about $500 million. What do you think a guy like Chad Wasilenkoff can do with $500 million dollars of investment capital, over the next 5 years? I think he started FTP with about $20 million and it is worth over $600 million today. Anyway, I am not expecting investors to put a $20 per share premium on FTP for this, but I think it explains a little of Chad's optimism and the $300 share price.
Anyways, that is about all I got.