century the active ingredient in this precipitate was fit into the periodic table as “potassium” with the
symbol “K”. Potash has stuck for potassium bearing salts mined in modern times. The salts are
processed into fertilizer, now 95% of the K market, which returns potassium to the plant world to
increase agricultural yields. Potassium is irreplaceable in this application, so growth of its supply is
considered critical to expand global food output. Potash salts are extracted in about a dozen areas, but
only a few have large scale. As with other bulk minerals, the boom in potash exploration is keyed to
both greater supply diversity and more capacity.
The most important potash basin in Saskatchewan supplies about 1/3 of the market and contains half of
the current reserves. Potash Corp of Saskatchewan (POT-T, N) is the region’s and world’s biggest
potash miner, with Mosaic Co (MOS-N) and Agrium Inc (AGU-T, N) making up the balance. All of
these producers market through a single agency. BHP Billiton (BHP-LSE, N.ADR) indicates it will
move ahead on its Janson Lake deposit, acquired by take-over of Anglo Potash in 2008, despite a
rebuff of a bid to takeover POT last year; Germany’s K+S KALI is also active there (see below); and a
number of other Canadian juniors own projects in the basin. These thick, rich 400 million year old
deposits lie below 1000 metres (3000 ft) of cover. Most are mined from high-capital underground
operations, though several use wells to circulate solutions that absorb salts.
The second largest active basin is Upper Kama in western Russia whose largest producers, Silvinit
(SLV-RTS) and Uralkali (URKA-RTS), are attempting a merger. Fertilizer giant PhosAgro has also
expressed an interest in Silvinit. PhosAgro had gained Russian government approval to counter the bid
by BHP for POT last year before Canadian governments nixed a take-over. The next most important
potash source is the Starobin basin in Belarus being mined by a state owned firm. Russia and Belarus
have joint marketing arrangements and together represent another 1/3 of potash output.
Other significant producers include: K+S KALI GmbH (K+S Group; SDF-XETRA) operating a series
of German mines and which recently took over Canadian junior Potash One; Intrepid Potash (IPI-N)
mining in Utah and New Mexico; Vale SA (VALE3-BOVESPA, VALE-N.ADR) from expanding
mines in Brazil; ICL Fertilizers (ICL-Tel Aviv)from mines in the UK and Spain as well as solar
evaporate operations in Israel; and Arab Potash (APOT-Amman) with solar evaporate operations in
Jordan. These are significant producers with some room for expansion, but none approaches the scale
potential of Saskatchewan or Russia/Belarus.
The Israel and Jordon operations extract potassium from Dead Sea brine. The Dead Sea is a presentday
equivalent of the now dry Danakil Depression seabed on the Ethiopia-Eretria border where potash
deposits were laid down less than two million years ago. Danakil is generating a lot of interest.
Shallow potash deposits have been located along 10s of km of the 200 km (120 mile) long Depression,
suggesting potential for both low entry costs and significant scale.
In Ethiopia the Indian miner Sainik Coal Mining is considering a move forward with a $1 billion
potash development, and BHP Billiton is at an earlier stage of assessing holdings. Smaller companies
with established resources include Toronto based juniors Alanna Potash (AAA-TSX.V) and recently
listed Ethiopian Potash (FED.TSX.V), both testing deposits first discovered in the 1960s. Chinese
funding has begun an upgrade and expansion of Ethiopia’s rail system that could move product to port
facilities in Djibouti. On the Eritrean side of the boarder Australian explorer South Boulder Mines
(STB-ASX) is in the early stages of outlining a resource, Vancouver’s NGEx Resources (NGQTSX.
V) from the Lundin group added potash ground to other in-country holdings, and others are
showing interest. The basin is close to Eritrean port facilities on the Red Sea. Danakil means “salt
lake” and it has supplied the common salt trade for millennia. It may now become important to
diversifying the modern potassium salts market.
Salts form as evaporation of trapped water increases its brine density. The first of the “evaporites” to
drop out are halite (NaCl), the table or common salt used in spicing and preserving food, and gypsum
used in construction. To generate potash salts a higher density brine is required. Small deposits are
found in a number of regions, but only a few basins have had the right conditions to both form and
preserve large potash deposits.
Sylvite, KCl, is the purest potash salt with a 52.5% K content. This is one of the last salts to
precipitate out of brine, so it is relatively scarce. Potassium in fertilizer is usually expressed as
potassium-oxide, K2O, which is 82% K by weight; sylvite equates to 63.2% K2O. The high sylvitelayer in an evaporite sequence, if it exists, is usually a mix of sylvite and halite. The more common
carnallite has a K content of 14%, or 17% K2O, but carnallite ore can contain other salts that upgradeits potassium content.
The most common potash product is “muirate of potash”, or MOP (muria is Latin for brine,) which ispotassium-chloride and therefore chemically equivalent to sylvite. This is usually what a producer
output will reference. Another typical product is potassium-sulfate, K2SO4, or SOP that contains about52% K2O but gains value as a sulfur source. Salts such as kainite containing sulfur and can bepreferentially upgraded to SOP.
The USGS estimate of a global 2010 mine output at about 33 million tons (30 MM tonnes) is K2Oequivalent. Most general comments on pricing will be based on this higher grade form used to denote
fertilizer content. Potash pricing went from a stable US $150-200/tonne prior to 2007 to over $800/t in
2008 as the biofuel craze gripped markets. Post Credit Crunch pricing slumped to $300 but has
recovered to near $400.
Fertilizer pricing is dependent on product form plus the content of other nutrients that may go into
various retail sales products. Potash deposits are valued on potassium content net of the costs to get
that on to a loading dock in a useable form. In comparing deposits or districts it’s important to note
whether reporting uses K2O or KCl equivalent, or some other local notation. As with most bulkmineral commodities valuation is based on contract pricing which can be tracked through news from
marketing agencies Canpotex and Belarussian Potash Co who account for over 60% of sales. Spot
pricing, which is an important gauge of market sentiment, tends to trade in line with grain prices.
Flooding in Australia and low precipitation in China’s grain belt have been underpinning recent gains
for both grains and potash.