TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Karmanowon Mar 30, 2011 8:18pm
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Post# 18364265
RE: RE: AAA remains "Undervalued"
RE: RE: AAA remains "Undervalued"beachdreamer, when you calculate the share price for Allana once we are in production you multiply the earnings per year per shares outstanding. The real important number is the amount of production of KCL per year not the amount of the whole KCL reserves...Depending on the radius Ercosplan allows us on hole #10 and pending hole #13 ( 2000 meters versus 1000 meters?) ...we could end up with 24 years of mine life just from these 2 holes at 2 million tons mined of KCL per year. We can expect our resource to expand with further drilling on the eastern shoreline and further drilling in the south near to hole #11. One advantage Allana may have is the possibilities of both a Solution Mine and Open Pit Mine...and with a cost of $725 million...and if the Banakable Feasibility Study later this year supports the concept, we could build 2 Mines for $1.45 Billion Dollars (60% of the cost of just one conventional mine in Sask.) and then mine 4 million tonnes of KCL per year and get a $4.80 Earnings Per Share x 17 times = (....big number....)
If we mine 2 million tons of actual KCL per year the market allows for a 17 times EPS and not based on whether there is a 30 or 40 or 50 year mine life. I suspect that there is a threshold for a "normal mine life" and anything beyond that threshold should add value to the company. So, you can see that the $30 - $40 per share price is based on the EPS:
($450 per tonne - $120 Opex =$330 - $100 Offtake Discount for 3.5 years = $230 per tonne x 2 million tonnes per year = $440 million dollars / 190 million shares = $2.40 EPS for AAA)
For Allana, using the same formula and assuming the "industry norm" and Potash Corp. multiple of 17 times EPS we =
2 million tonnes of KCL per year x $230 net earnings = $460 million dollars earnings / 190 million shares =
$2.40 EPS x 17 times earnings per share (total cash from sales) = $40 per share
$2.40 EPS x 20 times Free Cash Flow (cash after all debts paid) = $48 per share