Will La Nina Impact U.S. Crops In 2011?Extracted from Wallaces Farmer
January 8, 2011
Author: Rod Swoboda
Dry weather is already crippling crops in Argentina, southern Brazil and Uruguay in 2011. What will the La Nina weather pattern that is impacting South America mean for the U.S. Corn Belt this year?
The on-going drought in South America, particularly in Argentina, has impacted crop prices on the world market in a big way the past few weeks, sending corn and soybean prices skyrocketing. At grain elevators in central Iowa on Jan. 4, 2011, cash corn was $6.09 and soybeans were $13.61 per bushel.This year’s corn crop in Argentina is now just ahead of the critical pollination period. For soybeans, a number of acres have had to be replanted in Argentina because the beans didn’t germinate due to severe dryness. Heat is now threatening corn and soybean crops in southern Brazil and Uruguay too.
A La Nina event developed in the fall of 2010, and is still continuing and is having an effect on the weather entering 2011 in these key crop growing regions of the world. A La Nina occurs when water temperatures on the surface of the Pacific Ocean near the equator become cooler than normal. What will be the impact of the current La Nina on the rest of this winter? Will La Nina affect the weather in the U.S. Corn Belt this coming spring and summer? How long will this La Nina last? What is happening in Brazil and Argentina?
La Nina weather pattern is having an effect on South America
Elwynn Taylor, Iowa State University Extension climatologist, says farmers in Argentina are experiencing serious drought. Some areas have had only a quarter of the rainfall needed by this point in their growing season. "They’ve been quite dry in some places but in other places not as dry," says Taylor. "It’s spotty in Argentina’s corn producing area."
Argentina is projected to be the world’s second-largest corn exporter (behind the U.S.) this year and third-largest soybean exporter (behind the U.S. and Brazil). But hot, dry weather could limit production considerably South America. Some market analysts say corn, soybean and wheat prices may continue rising as the extent of lost South American production becomes clear.
As Argentina enters January, it’s kind of like coming into June on the dry side of usual here in Iowa, says Taylor. "We know the worry that situation would bring to us in Iowa, and that’s the situation Argentina now has. It is associated with La Nina. They experience about the same response to La Nina with their weather pattern in Argentina as we do here in the U.S. Corn Belt."
The response is that the weather tends to be warm in June in the U.S. and warm in January in Argentina, and dry in both places, when a La Nina is occurring. The current La Nina event is by some measures considered to be the strongest one that’s occurred in the past 50 years.
Argentina has already lost 15% to 20% of its 2011 corn yield
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