The market is cluelessCan't believe the reaction on this news, add 2700 boepd (largely oil) and it closes down a cent? Ridiculous.
These guys pay in Q3 and are only $ 50 mln. out of pocket. Considering 2 quarters of acquisition production this is how their production profile roughly looks like (at 85 days a quarter & $ 75 netback, not a stretch with $ 120 Brent):
Q2: rounded down 5000 boepd = $ 32 mln.
Q3: rounded down 8000 boepd = $ 51 mln.
Q4: with Athena 12500 boepd = $ 80 mln.
Total: $ 160 mln
They pay this acquisition in a bit more than a quarter while increasing their borrowing facility with nearly the same amount as out of pocket costs ($ 45 mln.).
They can do this 4 times a year without noticing it.
And they buy this as production! No expensive drilling & time consuming development plans. Installations (presto!) already there. No wonder these guys aren't exploring anymore, why the hell should they? CF opportunities come running in the door.
Now let's take that 12.500 boepd end production on a yearly basis this brings $ 310 mln or $ 1.20 cf/s:
At 4x cf this is: $ 4.80
At 5x cf this is: $ 6
Let alone at what now will be a ramp up to around 25.000 boepd:
At 4x cf this is: $ 9.70
At 5x cf this is: $ 12.10
I am accumulating at these prices, wouldn't you?
R.