RE: Recent Negative EventsNot a bad post Moncrief, except for the errors. 1stly, I have been using 14 million shares for the EPS estimates and so have the analysts. I believe that number incorporates all outstanding shares currently in existence. 2ndly, even if cotton supply increases putting pressure on dissolving pulp demand, Fortress has locked in $1,200 per ton in their forward contracts, which will easily allow them to surpass the $7 EPS estimate. These contracts run for 5 and 10 years respectively.
The lawsuit is a non-event and as for any of their other businesses, they will be maybe 10% to 20% of Fortress Paper's earnings going forward. If they grow great, if they don't it won't make that much difference.
I am sure you feel good lately about selling some shares but in my opinion, selling companies in the forties that will earn money in the $7s, $8s, $9s or $10s, is not something, that will end well, if done too often.
Everyone seems to think that a stock goes down, some people are obviously selling, therefore they must know that something bad is about to happen. Then we get a post from someone who has sold. Who articulates nothing but speculative fears as to why they did it, as opposed to anything concrete, and we never seem to put it together that these are the reasons people are selling and nothing more. These are the sellers people.
Unfortuneately for me, I need to sink my teeth into something concrete before I act. If I sold every stock I had because there was something bad that had the slightest chance of happening to a company, I would quickly find myself with no stocks at all.