Arcan Resources Ltd ARNBF

RE: PI Financial's report

[opg210]

Thanks for posting Hula. I don't have access to their research so it's much appreciated.
I just checked out their new presentation. It's a bit illuminating and kind of good news. For starters, they dedicate 4 slides to Production Optimization, so at least Arcan is trying to address everyone's concerns. They also note "Our new technical team believes that the current pumping system is impairing the well performance." That sounds positive; they've actually hired a new team to deal with this stuff. I hope they know what they're doing; there is still much to learn about how these wells work and what will work best since there aren't many textbooks that can teach this stuff. What's needed is an open mind and the desire to try new things and adopt new best practices. There is no room for arrogance; these slides seem to indicate just maybe a touch of humility which is pretty welcome.
The one other positive is the mapping, where they now break the region into floodable and non-floodable areas. The implication is that the well control and 3D give a very clear view of areas of good reservoir quality and not-so-good quality.
Time will tell I guess. I am still very nervous, especially when some of the stock's main boosters and underwriters (I think PI and Wellington were, don't have the info at my fingertips) seem to openly disagree with Arcan's estimates of recoverables by a large margin. I'd much rather Arcan have UNDERESTIMATED recoverables and proved otherwise (or maybe bumped up estimates as time went along), that generally leads to a healthy chart pattern. Now everyone is sitting back saying "prove it", and now they must or fear the wrath of the shorts if they stumble a bit. As they have.
And in truth, other companies seem to be suffering a similar fate; Crew is trading almost exactly where they were a year ago and they've done OK. THere are a few others on my radar that are similarly treading water.
Let's see how the summer goes...continued $100+ oil should help heal the wounds too. 
Good luck longs! I'll be a very happy camper if someone rubs my nose in these criticisms by the end of the year!
opg210