OTCPK:MAUXF - Post by User
Post by
oullinson Apr 14, 2011 1:33am
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Post# 18428891
A new look at financial
A new look at financialHere is my latest take on the financial. I did not include earnings since I do not have enough data on things like curency, stock compensation, depletion etc.
Any comment is welcome
| Estimated date | Jan-11 | 2/1/2011 | 3/1/2011 | Q1 2011 | Notes to Q1 | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Q1 2012 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Umusadege JV | UMU-1 5 6 | UMU-1 5 6 | UMU-1 5 6 | UMU-1,5,6 6 partial | UMU 6 partial production during Q1 | UMU-1,5,6, 7 partial Q2 | UMU-1,5,6, 7, 8 partial Q3 | UMU-1,5,6, 7, 8 full production |
| BOPD | 5,000 | 7,000 | 8,000 | | | 10,000 | 13,000 | 18,000 |
| Field Production bbl | 116,000 | 175,000 | 200,000 | 491,000 | 25 days of production per month (Jan actual) | 750,000 | 975,000 | 1,350,000 |
| ENI repayment bbl | 50,000 | 50,000 | 50,000 | 150,000 | Reimbursment of ENI for allocated pipeline credit in Q4 2010 | 170,000 | 0 | 0 |
| NetField Production bbl | 66,000 | 125,000 | 150,000 | 341,000 | | 580,000 | 975,000 | 1,350,000 |
| Sales Price US$/bbl | $97 | $105 | $115 | | Average price per bbl for Bonny oil | $110 | $110 | $110 |
| JV Oil Revenue US$ | $6,402,000 | $13,125,000 | $17,250,000 | $36,777,000 | | $63,800,000 | $107,250,000 | $148,500,000 |
| Royalty US$ | $588,984 | $1,207,500 | $1,897,500 | $3,693,984 | Variable royalty rate | $9,570,000 | $16,087,500 | $26,730,000 |
| OPEX US$ | $576,180 | $1,181,250 | $1,552,500 | $3,309,930 | | $5,742,000 | $9,652,500 | $13,365,000 |
| G&A US$ | $800,000 | $800,000 | $800,000 | $2,400,000 | | $2,400,000 | $2,400,000 | $2,400,000 |
| Abandonment US$ | $60,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 | | $60,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 |
| NDDC US$ | $170,000 | $170,000 | $170,000 | $170,000 | | $170,000 | $170,000 | $170,000 |
| Total Expense US$ | $2,195,164 | $3,418,750 | $4,480,000 | $9,633,914 | | $17,942,000 | $28,370,000 | $42,725,000 |
| Field Netback US$ | $4,206,836 | $9,706,250 | $12,770,000 | $27,143,086 | | $45,858,000 | $78,880,000 | $105,775,000 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Mart Share of JV: | | | | | | | | |
| Cost Oil Recovered | $1,200,000 | $3,000,000 | $3,000,000 | $7,200,000 | Exploration expenses returned to Mart. Assuming 1 well per quarter | $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| Profit Oil US$ | $2,103,418 | $4,853,125 | $6,385,000 | $13,571,543 | | $22,929,000 | $39,440,000 | $52,887,500 |
| G&A US$ | $130,000 | $140,000 | $170,000 | $440,000 | | $500,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Mart cashflow | $3,433,418 | $7,993,125 | $9,555,000 | $21,211,543 | | $32,429,000 | $48,940,000 | $62,387,500 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Mart Cashflow anualized | $41,201,016 | $95,917,500 | $114,660,000 | $63,634,629 | | $129,716,000 | $195,760,000 | $249,550,000 |
| | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | |
| Share price at 3X cashflow |
.37 |
.86 | $1.03 |
.57 | | $1.17 | $1.76 | $2.24 |
| Share price at 5X cashflow |
.62 | $1.44 | $1.72 |
.95 | | $1.94 | $2.93 | $3.74 |