JS in over his headHe is trying to get out of trouble before BNK releases Q1 earnings. He has the number from Q1 and knows that they will blow the doors off of earnings. That is going to open more eyes to BNK - so he better get covering. He says he doesn;t believe YE numbers, because those are 12 months from being announced - and by then, many will have forgotten how wrong he was. That - and so much macro economically - can happen between then and now that can affect oil.
The CSS trials this year are key, and if BNK was smart (and I think they are) they would be looking at how they can acceperate that acitivity. Production voumes are important - but only in as much as they provide the funds to develop the reserves. Since the Price of Brent has so far averaged 20-50% higher than the $80 predicted in December - BNK will have far more funding available to advance the reserves. this year than planned - even if they only exit 2011 at 16K bpd. JS can point to the 20K bpd as a sticky point, but if BNK were being valued on its production, even at 40K bpd it wouldn't be worth $8/share. The value here is not in the production BNK can get, btu rather proving the 1B+ bbls of recoverable oil. Let some other compnay figure out how to get it out of the ground.