An area that is truly intriguing because of not one, not two,
not three, but four structures on the way down and all that
production on the Ukrainian side of the Black Sea border suggesting
there could be/might be something significant there.
While it’s an ugly day, the numbers for this story are still
compelling...at least when we get back to more normal times.
Take the Breagh project, which comes on-stream sometime
in the next ten-twelve months. Using 3p numbers, Breagh
could be worth as much as $4 a share, or 2p numbers it could
be worth $3 a share when on production. But until we’re
closer to production, and we all know in oil and gas, anything
that can go wrong could go wrong, it won’t get that credit.
How much is Cladhan worth? Well take a guess. A commonly
used number is 150 million barrels of which Sterling
has 40%. Whether drilling is going to prove that number, or a
lower number or possibly a much higher number. The reason
today’s announcement was a big disappointment was an alluvial
fan could have made the huge jump in resource numbers.
But at 150 million barrels, at $15-$20 value in the ground
(when in production) and they own 40% comes up with a very
tasty number...should be the number that we get to, and once
again that’s the number for down the road.
As for value for Romania or France, still very much open to
debate.
Meanwhile, Cladhan is now two dry holes and four successful
wells, and here are the comments from Kevin Shaw,
who in many ways, has been the lead cheerleader for the Sterling
story and right now is probably not having a lot of joy.
But then in the oil sector in the last two months there as been
no joy. Shaw writes: