RE: RE: As promised Q1 revenue CF and EPS found one error in Q2 as picked up by Poker (thanks by the way)
The annualized CF was incorrect. I pasted from a monthly calculation so it got the X12 verses the X4 for Q.
I used 24 days of production per month vs 25 previously. Being a bit more conservative after the Q1 production report. I modified Q1 to reflect the 20 days outage in Q1.
The after tax earnings and EPS are quarterly.
Yes I went more conservative on Q2 production. UMU7 is not stable yet and s...t happens in the oil biz.
To answer Dirac's question:
The earnings are calculated This way:
Gross profit minus (gross revenue * .55 / 2 )
The tax is 67,5% of revenue minus "some" expenses. For planning purpose in previous presentation the company estimates that the effective tax rate is 55%.
You need to divide by 2 to get Mart's share
As a note I am speculating that the delay in the year end filing had to do with the definition of "some" expenses.
Again, the taxes and expenses are a bit fuzzy so I will feel a lot more comfortable with the calculation after I see the year end report.
Here is the corrected calculation
| Filling quarter | Q1/2011 | Notes to Q1 | Q2 2011 | Q3 2011 | Q1 2012 |
| | | | | | |
| Umusadege JV | UMU-1 5 6 | UMU 6 partial production during Q1 | UMU-1,5,6, 7 partial Q2 | UMU-1,5,6, 7 8 partial Q3 | UMU-1,5,6, 7, 8 full production |
| BOPD | 7,551 | Per last PR production | 11,500 | 14,000 | 20,000 |
| Field Production bbl | 528,570 | 70 days of production Q1. 24 days per M. Q2 and Q3 | 828,000 | 1,008,000 | 1,440,000 |
| ENI repayment bbl | 320,000 | Reimbursment of ENI for allocated pipeline credit in Q4 2010 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NetField Production bbl | 208,570 | | 828,000 | 1,008,000 | 1,440,000 |
| Sales Price US$/bbl | $105 | Average price per bbl for Bonny oil | $110 | $110 | $110 |
| JV Oil Revenue US$ | $21,899,850 | | $91,080,000 | $110,880,000 | $158,400,000 |
| Royalty US$ | $2,014,786 | Variable royalty rate | $12,751,200 | $16,632,000 | $28,512,000 |
| OPEX US$ | $1,970,987 | | $8,197,200 | $9,979,200 | $14,256,000 |
| G&A US$ | $2,400,000 | | $2,400,000 | $2,400,000 | $2,400,000 |
| Abandonment US$ | $60,000 | | $60,000 | $60,000 | $60,000 |
| NDDC US$ | $170,000 | | $170,000 | $170,000 | $170,000 |
| Total Expense US$ | $6,615,773 | | $23,578,400 | $29,241,200 | $45,398,000 |
| Field Netback US$ | $15,284,077 | | $67,501,600 | $81,638,800 | $113,002,000 |
| | | | | | |
| Mart Share of JV: | | | | | |
| Cost Oil Recovered | $3,000,000 | Exploration expenses returned to Mart. Assuming 1 well per quarter | $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 | $9,000,000 |
| Profit Oil US$ | $7,642,039 | | $33,750,800 | $40,819,400 | $56,501,000 |
| G&A US$ | $500,000 | | $500,000 | $500,000 | $500,000 |
| Mart cashflow | $11,142,039 | | $43,250,800 | $50,319,400 | $66,001,000 |
| | | | | | |
| Mart Cashflow anualized | $44,568,155 | | $173,003,200 | $201,277,600 | $264,004,000 |
| | | | | | |
| Q After tax earnings | $5,119,580 | Tax = 67.5% of Rev. after exp. | $18,203,800 | $19,827,400 | $22,441,000 |
| | | 55% of Mart share of revenue | | | |
| Q EPS |
.02 | |
.05 |
.06 |
.07 |
| | | | | | |
| Share price at 3X cashflow |
.40 | | $1.55 | $1.81 | $2.37 |
| Share price at 5X cashflow |
.67 | | $2.59 | $3.01 | $3.95 |