I still Predict a Buyout: $2.60 per shareJust a guess. I don't own the stock, but it seems to me that management wouldn't be settling all these lawsuits if they didn't have some serious bidders. I am sure everyone has mentioned their reluctance until the lawsuits are settled, but I would think management would want to save the money for the CVs unless they had some very serious indication of an offer.
It is very risky however, because even if there is an offer, it is difficult to say how much it will be for. Can one short convertible bonds. I would say a good hedge trade would be to buy a certain amount of common shares and short the equivalent amount of convertible bonds. The bonds have only a little over 8% upside and the common probably up to 80%. Although you could lose on the downside, the losses from the convertibles would help recoup that somewhat if not entirely.
I haven't worked out all the details because I don't think you can short CVs but maybe someone knows if you can. I would suspect if you could, some hedge fund somewhere would have driven their price to a lot lower then where they are today, if the above trade could be executed.
Anyway, just rambling here. Good luck to all stakeholders. I can't believe AG management messed up the business of making ice. They should be proud of that achievement. I figured out how to make it successfully when I was 8.