GREY:ARGEF - Post by User
Post by
juanito1on May 18, 2011 12:27pm
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Post# 18594586
Concentration, grade..Value
Concentration, grade..ValueGreat Resource...This is a major step...the concentration of the ore and it being at surface is huge. Here is my math:
Firstly..most analysts on Bay street would accept half of the inferred resource estimated by the engineers...so we have 38 million tons...To be conservative...we get a recovery of 85% of all products using the new technology.....that said..we get 16% TiO2...at $2800/ton....37.7% iron at $125/ton and .4% Vanadium at $15000/ton...which respectively has a value in the ground of $17.44 Billion TiO2...$1.8Billion Iron and $2.3Billion...to sum to $21.54 Billion. To put this in perspective...just how concentrated this ore is...it has a processed value in the ground of $564/ton...or over a third of an ounce of gold per ton...extraordinary...$179/share assuming mini plant recovery numbers.
Another way to value it is less aggresively is to use its Net Asset Value discounted which is $18.3 Billion or $152/share using 120 million shares...or the NAV using the discount Cash Flow model..very conservative at $12 Billion or $100/share...
So...an analysts target range is $100 to $180 a share...even if you assume they finance themselves and shares move to 200 million shares...you are still talking $60 to $100 per share target price...a long way from 50 cents....
The key to the market is knowing what is going to happen next before the world wakes up to it...thats how you make money...knowing what an anaysts WILL say about Argex, in a month or two time, when they need $100 mil to $300 million is the key...and above is what they will say...end of story...Be Long my friends...Buy of a lifetime...