GREY:CLLZF - Post by User
Post by
slew99on May 18, 2011 9:03pm
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Post# 18597769
CIBC Target Still $2.00
CIBC Target Still $2.00 | Sector Weighting: |
| Market Weight |
| 12-18 mo. Price Target | $2.00 |
| CLL-TSX (5/17/11) | $1.15 |
| Key Indices: | None |
| 3-5-Yr. EPS Gr. Rate (E) | NM |
| 52-week Range | $1.10-$1.66 |
| Shares Outstanding | 448.0M |
| Float | 444.0M Shrs |
| Avg. Daily Trading Vol. | 4,273,117 |
| Market Capitalization | $515.2M |
| Dividend/Div Yield | Nil / Nil |
| Fiscal Year Ends | December |
| Net Asset Value | $2.30 per Shr |
| 2011 ROE (E) | NM |
| Net Debt | $786.0M |
| Preferred | Nil |
| Common Equity | NM |
| Convertible Available | No |
| ? CLL reported Q1/10 CFPS (diluted) of (
.01), below both our CIBCe and consensus of
.02. Two-thirds of the variance stems from weaker upstream results (lower realized pricing, lower production, and higher opex), in addition to weaker-than-forecast downstream results. ? Production came in at 14,874 Boe/d, below our CIBCe of 17,005 Boe/d. Production from Pod One and Algar averaged 13,200 Boe/d vs. our CIBCe of 15,525 Boe/d. The drop in production is due to temporary shortages in dilbit trucks & the temporary cancellation of purchases from a regional upgrader. ? At three Hills/Twinings (Pekisko formation), 3 Hz wells have been drilled. The first well posted a peak rate of 300 Bbls/d. Additionally, CLL announced a land position in another light oil play with plans to drill a well in H2/11. 2011 capex has increased to $162MM in order to pursue the two plays. ? We are maintaining our Sector Outperformer rating and our $2 price target. Our price target is a 13% discount to our risked NAV and translates to 10.2x 2011/12E EV/DACF. This discount reflects CLL's debt position and lower strategic value as an M&A target. |