TSXV:AAA.P - Post by User
Comment by
Karmanowon May 20, 2011 12:33am
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Post# 18604759
RE: RE: Patience + More Patience
RE: RE: Patience + More PatienceAlfalfa, we will have to wait and see. The BHP issue has been raised and discussed on this board before. We know that a BHP Geologist was embeded in our camp one year ago. If someone still has questions about this...they should email Farhad or Peter and ask if the BHP Geologist is still in our mining camp? and if he is, is he privy to information regarding drill results before the NR from Allana?...I mentioned earlier that I was watching BNN last nite and the topic of BHP was discussed. What I learned was that BHP low ball offers and has no interest in paying a premium for resources. I also learned that one analyst stated that the largest potash company in the world....Potash Corp. deal would barely make an "uptick" in the EPS for the largest mining company in the world BHP. So, some of us are too close to AAA and in the BHP world...this is peanuts and probably not a large discussion for BHP. Common sense tells me that a country that has and is investing billions of dollars into Ethiopia will be more interested in securing a constant supply of fertilizer (MOP and SOP)....They have already expressed a desire to fund 70% of our mine Capex....Allana chose not to do that deal a year ago. Farhad has told us several times that Allana is in discussions with various parties...both Chinese and Indian Ag. companies have been mentioned...makes sense to me...as both these countries stand to benefit from our supply of potash. One of the existing majors may want to buy those juniors that can not raise the 2 billion dollars to build their mine...
Farhad has several options going forward. First, any interested party for a J/V or Offtake Agreement will want to know what the NI Resource Estimate confirms in the ground. Farhad can not sign off on a hope and a promise...Second, we also know that China Minerals, Liberty Metals and IFC World Bank have all done their complete due dilligence on Allana prior to buying in...what this tells me is they have been told that Allana plans on taking our deposit to a mine...Liberty and IFC had the choice of a 1000 junior companies and they chose Allana...ask yourself why?
In my opinion, NO ONE is going to be successful in trying to low ball a take over of Allana.
Liberty Metals has already told us that they want to be part of the discussions for financing our mine development...
IFC does not invest in a company looking to be bought out at an early stage.
Forbes/Manhattan may choose to sell their shares at some point in the future...or review their investment model and decide that this one is special and will pay them and their shareholders dividends for years to come.
They have the programs to calculate the resource based on drilling and they know what a producing potash company is worth and trades for...period...One day Allana will be compared with Intrepid Potash as a more relevant peer...
Relax...and unless the fundamentals change....our goal is the end game and earning $2 -$4 per share EPS every year.
For those of us that are long...Samarian Land purchase will likely be a game changer for Allana if the resource can be open pit mined like South Boulder plans to do...the value of the resource is 2.5 times higher than a resource that is Solution Mined...
I also believe that the transportation concerns will be fully addressed in the Bankable Feasibility Study....Allana may end up building its own railway link to the new spur being built by the Ethiopian Government. 60 miles of railway with containers filled at mine site...railed to port...and the same container loaded on ships may end up being more cost effective than all the trucks being talked about...a 30, 40. 50 year mine will more than support a rail link right to our mine...time will tell all
One last point, Farhad and Board Of Directors have a legal duty to review stock activity and if they believe that there is manipulation...they have recourse at their disposal...remember Allana has access to all the Lawyers with Forbes Manhattan...we are in good legal hands...I truly like that Farhad has a conservative approach to "under promise and over deliver"...2 weeks and we will all know....remember we really only need 3 million tonnes of KCL for 50 years..so 150 million tonnes of KCL and NO ONE will keep; back investors that can do the math we have already done...
We are in very early...in both the AAA and Ethiopian Story..Earnings Per Share will make things right...and the share price will adjust as our story unfolds and becomes reality.
Karma