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CI First Asset U.S. Tactical Sector Allocation Index ETF T.FUT



TSX:FUT - Post by User

Comment by jharbaughon May 26, 2011 8:38am
163 Views
Post# 18627331

RE: Almost $40 Million in the Hole

RE: Almost $40 Million in the Hole

By in the hole I believe you mean their deficit. That is $34M. They have no liquidity issues. Their balance sheet was negative as of the end of last year but their creative, non-dilutive financing from their NR on Jan 4th fixed that. Putting a title like "Almost $40 Million in the Hole" makes it sound like they are in Blockbuster-like liquidity crisis which they are not. A bashing title to get people scared imo. This is also no different than the balance sheet issues faced by SCG and INT at the end of last year as both of those companies had negative equity.

All a deficit means is that the company had losses in the past, which is why the stock is 4 cents in the first place. Deficit doesn't mean much when you have a successful, strongly growing business plan for the future like they do. INT is in the hole $25M and CUU is in the hole $38M. Investors don't seem to care too much based on the fact both those stocks market caps are in the hundreds of millions, dozens of times larger than FUT's.

When you come up with the 44 year assumption are you using last years full year numbers which excludes 100% of TADA (signed this year), almost all of CARP (signed in November) and taking into consideration that the contracts with the pet stores and car repair/tire stores have likely matured and revenues grown since then? No one can be that foolish to believe that they will be stuck at $300K a quarter in revenue in perpetuity with the rate that they are growing QoQ revenues and signing contracts. Especially when Q4 came in at nearly $500K.

Being Canadian I take offense to your final point. "Only" in Canada? With the wide variety of current and potential clients they have, they can grow strongly within their borders. People go gaga over companies that sell mystery product X to China or India but don't want a company with a solid business plan that fills a great market niche in the safety of their own backyard?

That being said it was stated in one of their NR's they fully intend to expand to the US. And with the infrastructure, experience and contract with Aeroplan, they could easily leverage all that to expand into China or India down the road if they choose to once those economies mature enough where their consumers start to care about perks like loyalty rewards.

As far as your opinion about it folding. Well, there's an institution out there that holds their debentures that so strongly disagrees with you that they are willing to accept shares valued at 5 cents in lieu of interest payments (see NR on March 11) when the stock was trading at 3 cents, a 67% premium. Somehow I think their DD is worth more than your one night of DD that involved looking over their deficit and dividing it by last years gross margin.

I don't mean to tear this guy a new one just because he doesn't share my opinion on the stock, but a few basher comments with a line about them being $40M in the hole really irks me when I have put several weeks worth of time researching this stock as well as a fair chunk of change.

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